Compendium › Surge › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 3 trades in period

+27.42%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,936.53
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$12,507.34
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.5/35
Total Return
14.8/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 42.0/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 31.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,507.34
Current Value
$15,936.53
Period P&L
$3,429.19
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.89

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+17.01%
Worst Trade
-5.23%
Avg Trade Return
+8.96%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$83,463.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,429.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,429.19
Gross Return
+27.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,507.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 53 $12,281.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:15am ET $266.73 53 $14,136.95 $14,363.13 +$1,855.79
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $321.32 44 $14,138.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET $304.50 44 $13,398.00 $13,623.05 $-740.08
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $261.50 52 $13,598.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.99 52 $15,911.48 $15,936.53 +$2,313.48
(+17.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,936.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,936.53
Total Return: +59.37%
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