Compendium › Surge › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.77%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,201.30
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$11,640.58
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:30:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
9.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 19.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,640.58
Current Value
$11,201.30
Period P&L
$-439.28
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+15.27%
Worst Trade
-6.72%
Avg Trade Return
-0.43%
Avg Hold Time
18.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,746.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-439.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-439.28
Gross Return
-3.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,640.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $899.30 12 $10,791.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 10:40am ET $1,036.58 12 $12,439.02 $13,288.00 +$1,647.42
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,151.72 11 $12,668.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET $1,092.02 11 $12,012.22 $12,631.30 $-656.70
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.27 10 $12,352.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,152.25 10 $11,522.50 $11,801.10 $-830.20
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,177.99 10 $11,779.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:30am ET $1,118.01 10 $11,180.10 $11,201.30 $-599.80
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
34.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,201.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,201.30
Total Return: +12.01%
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