Compendium › Surge › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-12-25 to present • 15 trades in period

-6.27%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,441.61
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$7,939.73
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-25 20:01:59

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.6
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.76
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 6.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 6.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,379
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
129 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,939.73
Current Value
$7,441.61
Period P&L
$-498.12
Max Drawdown
-38.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+3.41%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.43%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$241,688.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-498.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$-498.12
Gross Return
-6.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 129 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,939.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 12:45pm ET $106.81 74 $7,903.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 10:10am ET $107.42 74 $7,949.07 $8,029.26 +$45.13
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $105.95 75 $7,945.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 11:30am ET $106.82 75 $8,011.50 $8,094.89 +$65.63
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $109.47 73 $7,991.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 11:55am ET $110.07 73 $8,035.29 $8,138.87 +$43.98
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET $111.43 73 $8,134.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET $109.90 73 $8,022.70 $8,027.55 $-111.32
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $109.03 73 $7,959.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:00am ET $111.26 73 $8,121.98 $8,190.34 +$162.79
(+2.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $111.78 73 $8,159.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $109.89 73 $8,021.97 $8,052.37 $-137.97
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $109.14 73 $7,967.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET $108.29 73 $7,904.81 $7,989.95 $-62.42
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $109.90 72 $7,912.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $112.65 72 $8,110.80 $8,187.95 +$198.00
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $112.65 72 $8,110.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $116.49 72 $8,387.28 $8,464.43 +$276.48
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 2:45pm ET $120.11 70 $8,407.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:35pm ET $118.89 70 $8,321.95 $8,378.68 $-85.75
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $122.38 68 $8,321.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $118.82 68 $8,079.76 $8,136.94 $-241.74
(-2.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $118.08 68 $8,029.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $121.19 68 $8,240.92 $8,348.42 +$211.48
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $121.11 68 $8,235.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $119.76 68 $8,143.68 $8,256.62 $-91.80
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $120.86 68 $8,218.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 11:05am ET $114.80 68 $7,806.40 $7,844.54 $-412.08
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $118.45 66 $7,817.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:30am ET $112.35 66 $7,414.77 $7,441.61 $-402.93
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,441.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,558.39
Total Return: -25.58%
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