Compendium › Surge › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 3 trades in period

-2.99%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,009.93
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$8,256.62
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:27:19

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 7.0/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 5.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,256.62
Current Value
$8,009.93
Period P&L
$-246.69
Max Drawdown
-38.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+7.65%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.84%
Avg Hold Time
23d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$46,688.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-246.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-246.69
Gross Return
-2.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,256.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $120.86 68 $8,218.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 11:05am ET $114.80 68 $7,806.40 $7,844.54 $-412.08
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $118.45 66 $7,817.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:30am ET $112.35 66 $7,414.77 $7,441.61 $-402.93
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $117.96 63 $7,431.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $126.98 63 $7,999.74 $8,009.93 +$568.32
(+7.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,009.93
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,990.07
Total Return: -19.90%
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