MRNA Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 39 trades in period
+3.45%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,479.43
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$8,196.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
4.3/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,741
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,196.83
Current Value
$8,479.43
Period P&L
$282.60
Max Drawdown
-46.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
17 /
22
Best Trade
+2.86%
Worst Trade
-5.46%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
21.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$669,813.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$282.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$282.60
Gross Return
+3.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.45%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,196.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET | $24.14 | 339 | $8,181.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $23.84 | 339 | $8,081.76 | $8,096.82 |
$-100.01 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $25.31 | 319 | $8,073.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 1:55pm ET | $25.97 | 319 | $8,284.43 | $8,307.36 |
+$210.54 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 3:35pm ET | $26.98 | 307 | $8,281.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:00am ET | $26.02 | 307 | $7,988.14 | $8,014.17 |
$-293.19 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $24.68 | 324 | $7,996.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 1:15pm ET | $24.42 | 324 | $7,912.08 | $7,929.93 |
$-84.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 10:25am ET | $24.84 | 319 | $7,923.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:15am ET | $24.54 | 319 | $7,828.26 | $7,834.23 |
$-95.70 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:45pm ET | $24.69 | 317 | $7,826.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 11:15am ET | $24.42 | 317 | $7,739.56 | $7,747.05 |
$-87.18 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:35am ET | $23.21 | 333 | $7,730.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:45pm ET | $23.84 | 333 | $7,938.72 | $7,955.24 |
+$208.19 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:10pm ET | $24.02 | 331 | $7,950.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:40pm ET | $24.50 | 331 | $8,109.50 | $8,114.12 |
+$158.88 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 3:30pm ET | $24.70 | 328 | $8,099.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 10:00am ET | $24.96 | 328 | $8,185.24 | $8,199.40 |
+$85.28 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 11:05am ET | $25.28 | 324 | $8,190.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET | $25.98 | 324 | $8,417.52 | $8,426.20 |
+$226.80 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:35am ET | $24.36 | 345 | $8,404.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 11:05am ET | $24.10 | 345 | $8,314.50 | $8,336.50 |
$-89.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $25.17 | 331 | $8,331.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $24.79 | 331 | $8,205.49 | $8,210.72 |
$-125.78 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:25am ET | $25.64 | 320 | $8,204.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET | $26.36 | 320 | $8,435.20 | $8,441.12 |
+$230.40 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $26.58 | 317 | $8,425.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 1:40pm ET | $27.34 | 317 | $8,665.20 | $8,680.46 |
+$239.34 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $27.95 | 310 | $8,664.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:05am ET | $27.67 | 310 | $8,576.15 | $8,592.11 |
$-88.35 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 2:20pm ET | $28.49 | 301 | $8,575.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 2:45pm ET | $28.09 | 301 | $8,455.09 | $8,471.71 |
$-120.40 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:40am ET | $28.65 | 295 | $8,451.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:25am ET | $29.42 | 295 | $8,678.90 | $8,698.86 |
+$227.15 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $30.39 | 286 | $8,690.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $29.99 | 286 | $8,577.14 | $8,585.89 |
$-112.97 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 12:15pm ET | $29.41 | 291 | $8,558.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 1:55pm ET | $30.16 | 291 | $8,776.56 | $8,804.14 |
+$218.25 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:20am ET | $31.77 | 277 | $8,801.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 2:50pm ET | $31.44 | 277 | $8,708.88 | $8,712.01 |
$-92.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $32.24 | 270 | $8,704.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 10:55am ET | $33.09 | 270 | $8,932.95 | $8,940.16 |
+$228.15 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $35.12 | 254 | $8,920.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $33.78 | 254 | $8,580.12 | $8,599.80 |
$-340.36 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $31.20 | 275 | $8,580.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:40am ET | $30.69 | 275 | $8,439.75 | $8,459.55 |
$-140.25 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $34.89 | 242 | $8,443.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $35.83 | 242 | $8,671.20 | $8,687.34 |
+$227.79 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $35.90 | 241 | $8,651.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $36.89 | 241 | $8,891.60 | $8,927.04 |
+$239.70 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $34.59 | 258 | $8,922.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $34.23 | 258 | $8,830.05 | $8,834.16 |
$-92.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $37.09 | 238 | $8,826.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $38.10 | 238 | $9,067.80 | $9,075.73 |
+$241.57 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $41.65 | 217 | $9,036.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $41.18 | 217 | $8,936.06 | $8,974.82 |
$-100.91 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.05 | 213 | $8,956.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $41.56 | 213 | $8,852.28 | $8,870.56 |
$-104.26 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.21 | 191 | $8,825.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $47.51 | 191 | $9,074.41 | $9,119.82 |
+$249.26 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.83 | 169 | $9,097.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $53.24 | 169 | $8,997.56 | $9,020.11 |
$-99.71 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $47.50 | 189 | $8,977.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $46.90 | 189 | $8,864.10 | $8,906.71 |
$-113.40 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $43.56 | 204 | $8,885.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $44.77 | 204 | $9,133.08 | $9,154.57 |
+$247.86 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:00pm ET | $43.36 | 211 | $9,149.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $42.87 | 211 | $9,044.52 | $9,049.60 |
$-104.97 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $41.69 | 217 | $9,046.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $41.17 | 217 | $8,933.89 | $8,936.76 |
$-112.84 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $43.81 | 204 | $8,936.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $45.06 | 204 | $9,192.22 | $9,192.76 |
+$256.00 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $38.48 | 238 | $9,158.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $39.53 | 238 | $9,409.33 | $9,443.85 |
+$251.09 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.07 | 177 | $9,393.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $50.17 | 177 | $8,880.09 | $8,930.87 |
$-512.98 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.99 | 171 | $8,890.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $49.35 | 171 | $8,438.85 | $8,479.43 |
$-451.44 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,479.43
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,520.57
Total Return:
-15.21%