PEPEUSD Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 38 trades in period
-16.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$3,659.76
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$4,363.28
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
3.3/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 3.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
52,307
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
182 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$4,363.28
Current Value
$3,659.76
Period P&L
$-722.39
Max Drawdown
-62.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
12 /
26
Best Trade
+13.87%
Worst Trade
-13.49%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
14.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$320,576.42
Estimated Fees
$801.44
Gross P&L
$-722.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,523.83
Gross Return
-16.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.92%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 182 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $4,363.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $0.00000574 | 760,153,310 | $4,363.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000547 | 760,153,310 | $4,158.04 | $4,158.04 |
$-205.24 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:25am ET | $0.00000575 | 723,137,391 | $4,158.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.00000590 | 723,137,391 | $4,266.51 | $4,266.51 |
+$108.47 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 2:35pm ET | $0.00000620 | 688,146,774 | $4,266.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000600 | 688,146,774 | $4,128.88 | $4,128.88 |
$-137.63 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000487 | 847,819,301 | $4,128.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000479 | 847,819,301 | $4,061.05 | $4,061.05 |
$-67.83 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $0.00000481 | 844,293,139 | $4,061.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000474 | 844,293,139 | $4,001.95 | $4,001.95 |
$-59.10 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:45am ET | $0.00000432 | 926,377,314 | $4,001.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $0.00000443 | 926,377,314 | $4,103.85 | $4,103.85 |
+$101.90 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.00000447 | 918,087,248 | $4,103.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 2:15pm ET | $0.00000442 | 918,087,248 | $4,057.95 | $4,057.95 |
$-45.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:10am ET | $0.00000453 | 895,794,701 | $4,057.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $0.00000465 | 895,794,701 | $4,165.45 | $4,165.45 |
+$107.50 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000421 | 989,418,052 | $4,165.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000433 | 989,418,052 | $4,284.18 | $4,284.18 |
+$118.73 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:00pm ET | $0.00000478 | 896,271,966 | $4,284.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 3:00pm ET | $0.00000473 | 896,271,966 | $4,239.37 | $4,239.37 |
$-44.81 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.00000486 | 872,298,353 | $4,239.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $0.00000481 | 872,298,353 | $4,195.76 | $4,195.76 |
$-43.61 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000470 | 892,714,893 | $4,195.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.00000465 | 892,714,893 | $4,151.12 | $4,151.12 |
$-44.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:10am ET | $0.00000472 | 879,474,576 | $4,151.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 1:35pm ET | $0.00000486 | 879,474,576 | $4,274.25 | $4,274.25 |
+$123.13 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET | $0.00000448 | 954,073,660 | $4,274.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET | $0.00000443 | 954,073,660 | $4,226.55 | $4,226.55 |
$-47.70 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 11:20am ET | $0.00000410 | 1,030,865,853 | $4,226.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.00000423 | 1,030,865,853 | $4,360.56 | $4,360.56 |
+$134.01 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00000423 | 1,030,865,248 | $4,360.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $0.00000414 | 1,030,865,248 | $4,267.78 | $4,267.78 |
$-92.78 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00000402 | 1,061,636,815 | $4,267.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 2:30pm ET | $0.00000414 | 1,061,636,815 | $4,395.18 | $4,395.18 |
+$127.40 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.00000397 | 1,107,098,236 | $4,395.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 12:50pm ET | $0.00000390 | 1,107,098,236 | $4,317.68 | $4,317.68 |
$-77.50 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $0.00000394 | 1,095,857,868 | $4,317.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 11:10am ET | $0.00000398 | 1,095,857,868 | $4,361.51 | $4,361.51 |
+$43.83 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.00000420 | 1,038,454,761 | $4,361.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 12:45pm ET | $0.00000415 | 1,038,454,761 | $4,309.59 | $4,309.59 |
$-51.92 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000591 | 729,203,045 | $4,309.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000673 | 729,203,045 | $4,907.54 | $4,907.54 |
+$597.95 (+13.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000690 | 711,237,681 | $4,907.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000683 | 711,237,681 | $4,857.75 | $4,857.75 |
$-49.79 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000680 | 714,374,999 | $4,857.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $0.00000672 | 714,374,999 | $4,800.60 | $4,800.60 |
$-57.15 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000615 | 780,585,365 | $4,800.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000607 | 780,585,365 | $4,738.15 | $4,738.15 |
$-62.45 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000588 | 805,807,823 | $4,738.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000582 | 805,807,823 | $4,689.80 | $4,689.80 |
$-48.35 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $0.00000593 | 790,860,033 | $4,689.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000513 | 790,860,033 | $4,057.11 | $4,057.11 |
$-632.69 (-13.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $0.00000508 | 798,643,700 | $4,057.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000498 | 798,643,700 | $3,977.25 | $3,977.25 |
$-79.86 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $0.00000497 | 800,251,509 | $3,977.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000491 | 800,251,509 | $3,929.23 | $3,929.23 |
$-48.02 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000501 | 784,277,445 | $3,929.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $0.00000522 | 784,277,445 | $4,093.93 | $4,093.93 |
+$164.70 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000502 | 815,523,904 | $4,093.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000496 | 815,523,904 | $4,045.00 | $4,045.00 |
$-48.93 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.00000504 | 802,579,365 | $4,045.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $0.00000498 | 802,579,365 | $3,996.85 | $3,996.85 |
$-48.15 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000467 | 855,856,531 | $3,996.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000462 | 855,856,531 | $3,954.06 | $3,954.06 |
$-42.79 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000436 | 906,894,495 | $3,954.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000431 | 906,894,495 | $3,908.72 | $3,908.72 |
$-45.34 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000417 | 937,342,925 | $3,908.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $0.00000430 | 937,342,925 | $4,030.57 | $4,030.57 |
+$121.85 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000385 | 1,046,901,298 | $4,030.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $0.00000395 | 1,046,901,298 | $4,135.26 | $4,135.26 |
+$104.69 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000381 | 1,085,370,078 | $4,135.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000363 | 1,085,370,078 | $3,939.89 | $3,939.89 |
$-195.37 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000378 | 1,042,298,941 | $3,939.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000373 | 1,042,298,941 | $3,887.78 | $3,887.78 |
$-52.11 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $0.00000341 | 1,140,111,437 | $3,887.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 6:45pm ET | $0.00000321 | 1,140,111,437 | $3,659.76 | $3,659.76 |
$-246.89 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,659.76
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,340.24
Total Return:
-63.40%