Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:10

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.5 oversold
20d Trend
-29.6%
5d Trend
-14.4%
EMA20 Dist
-18.7%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
27.0/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality 54.2/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 51.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,672.31
Current Value
$21,134.38
Period P&L
$3,462.07
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+18.78%
Worst Trade
-5.86%
Avg Trade Return
+2.79%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$285,063.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,462.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,462.07
Gross Return
+19.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PLTR Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $17,672.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $154.76 114 $17,643.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:05am ET $146.73 114 $16,727.22 $16,756.32 $-915.99
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
2 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $143.95 116 $16,698.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 11:50am ET $136.73 116 $15,860.10 $15,918.22 $-838.10
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $148.30 107 $15,868.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $140.77 107 $15,062.37 $15,112.49 $-805.73
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $116.83 129 $15,071.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $134.63 129 $17,367.27 $17,408.69 +$2,296.20
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $131.79 132 $17,396.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $124.07 132 $16,377.24 $16,389.65 $-1,019.04
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $126.78 129 $16,354.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $150.60 129 $19,426.76 $19,461.79 +$3,072.14
(+18.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $160.46 121 $19,415.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:25am ET $184.91 121 $22,374.71 $22,420.84 +$2,959.05
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $177.41 126 $22,353.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $167.20 126 $21,067.20 $21,134.38 $-1,286.46
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $21,134.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$11,134.38
Total Return: +111.34%
Back to Surge