Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:33:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 36.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,165.95
Current Value
$19,451.92
Period P&L
$3,285.97
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
4 / 8
Best Trade
+21.47%
Worst Trade
-6.93%
Avg Trade Return
+2.12%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$447,802.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,285.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,285.97
Gross Return
+20.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.33%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $16,165.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.49 1,043 $16,156.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $17.99 1,043 $18,763.57 $18,773.45 +$2,607.50
(+16.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.53 1,070 $18,757.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:55am ET $16.52 1,070 $17,673.72 $17,690.07 $-1,083.38
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held
3 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $18.58 952 $17,688.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $22.57 952 $21,486.64 $21,488.55 +$3,798.48
(+21.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $28.50 753 $21,460.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $26.91 753 $20,263.16 $20,291.21 $-1,197.34
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $28.41 714 $20,284.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 2:00pm ET $26.91 714 $19,213.74 $19,220.21 $-1,071.00
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $22.75 844 $19,201.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $21.56 844 $18,196.64 $18,215.85 $-1,004.36
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $22.00 827 $18,194.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET $20.90 827 $17,280.17 $17,302.02 $-913.83
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $19.06 907 $17,287.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $22.18 907 $20,121.79 $20,136.40 +$2,834.38
(+16.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $22.40 898 $20,115.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $21.01 898 $18,866.98 $18,888.18 $-1,248.22
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $23.38 807 $18,867.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $21.76 807 $17,560.32 $17,580.84 $-1,307.34
(-6.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $21.94 801 $17,574.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET $20.82 801 $16,676.82 $16,683.64 $-897.20
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $21.32 782 $16,672.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $24.86 782 $19,440.52 $19,451.92 +$2,768.28
(+16.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,451.92
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,451.92
Total Return: +94.52%
Back to Surge