Compendium › Surge › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 26 trades in period

-7.47%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,654.80
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$11,514.94
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:29:39

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
7.3/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 12.9/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,274
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,514.94
Current Value
$10,654.80
Period P&L
$-860.14
Max Drawdown
-31.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
12 / 14
Best Trade
+3.62%
Worst Trade
-11.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$591,672.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-860.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-860.14
Gross Return
-7.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,514.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 1:00pm ET $50.80 226 $11,480.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 11:25am ET $52.64 226 $11,896.64 $11,930.78 +$415.84
(+3.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 10:35am ET $57.43 207 $11,888.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 10:00am ET $55.45 207 $11,478.15 $11,520.92 $-409.86
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:25am ET $55.98 205 $11,474.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $53.56 205 $10,979.80 $11,025.84 $-495.08
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 10:55am ET $51.14 215 $10,994.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 2:40pm ET $51.11 215 $10,988.59 $11,020.40 $-5.44
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET $50.08 220 $11,017.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 11:35am ET $51.42 220 $11,312.40 $11,315.20 +$294.80
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET $51.04 221 $11,279.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 10:30am ET $51.82 221 $11,452.22 $11,487.58 +$172.38
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 12:40pm ET $52.15 220 $11,473.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 3:20pm ET $51.57 220 $11,344.30 $11,358.88 $-128.70
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $52.33 217 $11,355.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 10:00am ET $51.79 217 $11,238.43 $11,241.70 $-117.18
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 12:10pm ET $48.05 233 $11,195.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 12:40pm ET $48.69 233 $11,344.77 $11,390.82 +$149.12
(+1.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 10:50am ET $49.17 231 $11,358.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET $49.72 231 $11,485.32 $11,517.87 +$127.05
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET $49.81 231 $11,506.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $48.55 231 $11,215.05 $11,226.81 $-291.06
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.91 234 $11,210.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $48.22 234 $11,284.51 $11,300.38 +$73.57
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET $48.24 234 $11,288.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $47.63 234 $11,145.42 $11,157.64 $-142.74
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $47.45 235 $11,150.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:35am ET $48.45 235 $11,384.58 $11,391.46 +$233.82
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET $48.63 234 $11,379.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $48.08 234 $11,250.72 $11,262.76 $-128.70
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.69 236 $11,254.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $47.82 236 $11,286.58 $11,294.50 +$31.74
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $50.28 224 $11,262.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $49.71 224 $11,135.04 $11,166.82 $-127.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $47.00 237 $11,139.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $48.18 237 $11,418.66 $11,446.48 +$279.66
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $48.23 237 $11,430.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $47.72 237 $11,309.64 $11,325.61 $-120.87
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET $48.22 234 $11,283.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:00am ET $47.58 234 $11,133.72 $11,175.85 $-149.76
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET $47.95 233 $11,172.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $49.19 233 $11,461.27 $11,464.77 +$288.92
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $48.98 234 $11,461.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $50.65 234 $11,851.47 $11,854.92 +$390.15
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $51.18 231 $11,822.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:25am ET $50.59 231 $11,686.29 $11,718.63 $-136.29
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $47.82 245 $11,715.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET $47.70 245 $11,686.50 $11,689.23 $-29.40
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $48.10 243 $11,688.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $49.37 243 $11,995.70 $11,996.55 +$307.32
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 212 $11,982.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 212 $10,640.49 $10,654.80 $-1,341.75
(-11.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,654.80
Net Profit/Loss: +$654.80
Total Return: +6.55%
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