Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:26:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 26.0/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 23.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,705.30
Current Value
$14,092.05
Period P&L
$1,386.75
Max Drawdown
-37.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+24.20%
Worst Trade
-8.04%
Avg Trade Return
+1.58%
Avg Hold Time
6.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$290,009.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,386.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,386.75
Gross Return
+10.91%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.91%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,705.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $45.06 282 $12,706.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET $42.71 282 $12,043.80 $12,088.71 $-663.12
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $39.25 307 $12,049.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $48.75 307 $14,966.25 $15,005.21 +$2,916.50
(+24.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $57.87 259 $14,988.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $66.66 259 $17,264.94 $17,281.82 +$2,276.61
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18d held
4 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $80.67 214 $17,263.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $76.50 214 $16,369.93 $16,388.37 $-893.45
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $82.88 197 $16,327.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $78.71 197 $15,505.87 $15,566.88 $-821.49
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 199 $15,525.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $71.75 199 $14,277.26 $14,318.16 $-1,248.72
(-8.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $74.74 191 $14,275.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $70.93 191 $13,548.58 $13,591.40 $-726.76
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $70.11 193 $13,530.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:40am ET $66.56 193 $12,845.12 $12,906.25 $-685.15
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $65.56 196 $12,849.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $75.55 196 $14,807.80 $14,864.29 +$1,958.04
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $75.60 196 $14,817.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET $71.66 196 $14,045.36 $14,092.05 $-772.24
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,092.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,092.05
Total Return: +40.92%
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