Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:34:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 3.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$6,362.24
Current Value
$6,492.82
Period P&L
$130.58
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
5 / 8
Best Trade
+15.08%
Worst Trade
-7.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.33%
Avg Hold Time
9.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$162,946.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$130.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$130.58
Gross Return
+2.05%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $6,362.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $333.64 19 $6,339.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $335.52 19 $6,374.88 $6,397.96 +$35.72
(+0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $342.08 18 $6,157.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 3:40pm ET $338.48 18 $6,092.64 $6,333.25 $-64.71
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $342.79 18 $6,170.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET $339.06 18 $6,103.08 $6,266.20 $-67.05
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $329.31 19 $6,256.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $319.32 19 $6,067.08 $6,076.48 $-189.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $294.15 20 $5,883.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $301.72 20 $6,034.40 $6,227.88 +$151.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $294.89 21 $6,192.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET $291.79 21 $6,127.49 $6,162.68 $-65.20
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $272.06 22 $5,985.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET $279.35 22 $6,145.72 $6,323.08 +$160.40
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:55am ET $264.42 23 $6,081.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $263.52 23 $6,060.85 $6,302.27 $-20.81
(-0.3%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $246.26 25 $6,156.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $231.26 25 $5,781.40 $5,927.17 $-375.10
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $242.13 24 $5,811.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $263.09 24 $6,314.16 $6,430.21 +$503.04
(+8.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
47d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $217.38 29 $6,304.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:20am ET $250.18 29 $7,255.08 $7,381.12 +$950.91
(+15.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
26d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $259.82 28 $7,274.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $241.52 28 $6,762.62 $6,868.78 $-512.34
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
39d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $261.36 26 $6,795.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $246.90 26 $6,419.40 $6,492.82 $-375.96
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,492.82
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,507.18
Total Return: -35.07%
Back to Surge