Compendium › Surge › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 11 trades in period

+4.46%
Year to Date Return
$13,183.25
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$12,619.96
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-25 15:11:17

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.8/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 27.2/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 25.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,385
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
125 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,619.96
Current Value
$13,183.25
Period P&L
$563.29
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
4 / 7
Best Trade
+10.67%
Worst Trade
-5.20%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$272,458.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$563.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$563.29
Gross Return
+4.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 125 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,619.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $81.31 155 $12,603.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 2:30pm ET $81.60 155 $12,648.00 $12,664.91 +$44.95
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET $83.46 151 $12,601.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $82.53 151 $12,462.03 $12,525.23 $-139.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $80.36 155 $12,455.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $79.42 155 $12,310.10 $12,379.53 $-145.70
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $80.22 154 $12,353.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $79.35 154 $12,219.13 $12,244.78 $-134.75
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $81.83 149 $12,192.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:10am ET $81.70 149 $12,173.30 $12,225.41 $-19.37
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $75.19 162 $12,181.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $74.24 162 $12,026.88 $12,070.70 $-154.71
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $69.26 174 $12,051.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $71.12 174 $12,374.88 $12,394.34 +$323.64
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET $71.36 173 $12,345.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $73.26 173 $12,673.98 $12,723.04 +$328.70
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $71.00 179 $12,708.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $70.11 179 $12,549.69 $12,564.45 $-158.59
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 172 $12,542.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 172 $11,890.36 $11,912.36 $-652.09
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 162 $11,911.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $81.38 162 $13,182.75 $13,183.25 +$1,270.89
(+10.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,183.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,183.25
Total Return: +31.83%
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