Compendium › Surge › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 25 trades in period

+13.93%
Year to Date Return
$9,612.96
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$8,437.80
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

6
+2.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,096
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,437.80
Current Value
$9,612.96
Period P&L
$1,175.16
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
7 / 18
Best Trade
+24.42%
Worst Trade
-9.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.91%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$476,152.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,175.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,175.16
Gross Return
+13.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,437.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $109.54 77 $8,434.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $108.20 77 $8,331.40 $8,334.77 $-103.03
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:10am ET $116.95 71 $8,303.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET $115.54 71 $8,202.99 $8,234.30 $-100.47
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET $116.81 70 $8,176.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $115.62 70 $8,093.40 $8,151.00 $-83.30
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET $107.21 76 $8,148.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:45pm ET $105.76 76 $8,038.14 $8,040.80 $-110.20
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET $109.60 73 $8,000.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET $108.36 73 $7,909.92 $7,949.92 $-90.88
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET $120.21 66 $7,934.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $123.28 66 $8,136.48 $8,152.21 +$202.29
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $126.11 64 $8,071.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $124.83 64 $7,989.44 $8,070.61 $-81.60
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $120.00 67 $8,039.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:30am ET $138.20 67 $9,259.40 $9,290.34 +$1,219.73
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $148.35 62 $9,198.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET $140.24 62 $8,694.88 $8,787.21 $-503.13
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $155.98 56 $8,734.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $147.27 56 $8,247.29 $8,299.62 $-487.59
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $152.16 54 $8,216.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $175.10 54 $9,455.40 $9,538.38 +$1,238.76
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.3d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $221.94 42 $9,321.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $201.41 42 $8,459.30 $8,676.13 $-862.25
(-9.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
13 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $209.82 41 $8,602.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $241.37 41 $9,896.19 $9,969.66 +$1,293.53
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15d held
14 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $317.99 31 $9,857.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $395.64 31 $12,264.84 $12,376.81 +$2,407.15
(+24.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $354.78 34 $12,062.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $336.98 34 $11,457.49 $11,771.78 $-605.03
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $353.54 33 $11,666.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $407.48 33 $13,446.68 $13,551.63 +$1,779.85
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $367.21 36 $13,219.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $348.71 36 $12,553.74 $12,885.81 $-665.82
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $333.29 38 $12,665.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.93 38 $11,625.34 $11,846.13 $-1,039.68
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $325.53 36 $11,719.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $301.93 36 $10,869.66 $10,996.71 $-849.42
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $282.16 38 $10,722.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 11:05am ET $268.04 38 $10,185.52 $10,460.15 $-536.56
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $250.68 41 $10,277.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:55am ET $237.97 41 $9,756.77 $9,939.04 $-521.11
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $261.88 37 $9,689.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 11:10am ET $247.70 37 $9,164.90 $9,414.38 $-524.66
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $245.73 38 $9,337.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $231.30 38 $8,789.40 $8,866.04 $-548.34
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $252.35 35 $8,832.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:05am ET $238.07 35 $8,332.45 $8,366.24 $-499.80
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $258.01 32 $8,256.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $296.97 32 $9,503.04 $9,612.96 +$1,246.72
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,612.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-387.04
Total Return: -3.87%
Back to Surge