Compendium › Surge › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 17 trades in period

-6.77%
Year to Date Return
$9,740.02
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$10,393.90
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:58

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 4.8/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,133
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,393.90
Current Value
$9,740.02
Period P&L
$-704.04
Max Drawdown
-33.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
6 / 11
Best Trade
+4.64%
Worst Trade
-5.63%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
21.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$366,482.41
Estimated Fees
$916.21
Gross P&L
$-704.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,620.25
Gross Return
-6.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.59%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,393.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET $13.50 769 $10,381.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $14.13 769 $10,862.89 $10,875.29 +$481.39
(+4.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 1:55pm ET $14.27 762 $10,872.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $14.63 762 $11,148.06 $11,150.37 +$275.08
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $13.83 806 $11,146.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $13.68 806 $11,028.50 $11,031.89 $-118.48
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $13.87 795 $11,026.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $13.72 795 $10,907.40 $10,912.64 $-119.25
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:20am ET $13.71 795 $10,899.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:25am ET $14.07 795 $11,185.65 $11,198.84 +$286.20
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:30am ET $14.17 790 $11,194.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET $14.54 790 $11,486.60 $11,491.14 +$292.30
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:50am ET $14.74 779 $11,482.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $14.59 779 $11,365.61 $11,374.29 $-116.85
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:30pm ET $12.42 915 $11,364.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $12.18 915 $11,144.70 $11,154.69 $-219.60
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $12.24 911 $11,150.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $12.05 911 $10,977.55 $10,981.60 $-173.09
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET $11.88 924 $10,977.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:40am ET $11.71 924 $10,820.04 $10,824.52 $-157.08
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:00am ET $11.74 922 $10,824.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $11.59 922 $10,685.98 $10,686.22 $-138.30
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $10.28 1,039 $10,680.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $10.17 1,039 $10,566.63 $10,571.93 $-114.29
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $10.19 1,037 $10,567.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $9.77 1,037 $10,131.49 $10,136.39 $-435.54
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET $9.07 1,117 $10,131.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:50am ET $9.31 1,117 $10,399.27 $10,404.47 +$268.08
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $8.97 1,160 $10,401.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $8.75 1,160 $10,146.51 $10,149.44 $-255.03
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $9.07 1,118 $10,145.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:30pm ET $9.23 1,118 $10,317.36 $10,321.51 +$172.07
(+1.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $9.23 1,118 $10,321.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 6:55am ET $8.71 1,118 $9,740.02 $9,740.02 $-631.65
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,740.02
Net Profit/Loss: $-259.98
Total Return: -2.60%
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