Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:01:40

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.1/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 28.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 25.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,092
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,684.40
Current Value
$14,220.48
Period P&L
$1,536.08
Max Drawdown
-20.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
7 / 7
Best Trade
+15.44%
Worst Trade
-15.96%
Avg Trade Return
+1.18%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$382,632.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,536.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,536.08
Gross Return
+12.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,684.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET $345.93 36 $12,453.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:50am ET $349.34 36 $12,576.24 $12,807.09 +$122.69
(+1.0%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET $348.78 36 $12,556.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $344.91 36 $12,416.76 $12,667.77 $-139.32
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $340.20 37 $12,587.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $349.51 37 $12,931.87 $13,012.43 +$344.66
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET $353.42 36 $12,723.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET $355.87 36 $12,811.32 $13,100.63 +$88.20
(+0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $332.68 39 $12,974.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $329.07 39 $12,833.54 $12,959.64 $-140.99
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $329.05 39 $12,832.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $337.65 39 $13,168.35 $13,295.04 +$335.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:15am ET $344.54 38 $13,092.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET $342.51 38 $13,015.19 $13,217.90 $-77.14
(-0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $326.71 40 $13,068.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET $375.73 40 $15,029.20 $15,178.70 +$1,960.80
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $390.09 38 $14,823.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $450.33 38 $17,112.54 $17,467.82 +$2,289.12
(+15.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
47d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $488.34 35 $17,091.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $410.39 35 $14,363.48 $14,739.40 $-2,728.42
(-16.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $402.68 36 $14,496.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $380.40 36 $13,694.58 $13,937.32 $-802.08
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $395.25 35 $13,833.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $373.16 35 $13,060.60 $13,164.17 $-773.15
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $374.00 35 $13,090.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET $430.79 35 $15,077.65 $15,151.82 +$1,987.65
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
32d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $426.41 35 $14,924.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET $399.80 35 $13,993.07 $14,220.48 $-931.34
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,220.48
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,220.48
Total Return: +42.20%
Back to Surge