Compendium › Surge › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 21 trades in period

-21.86%
Year to Date Return
$15,232.25
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$19,494.33
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:51:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 33.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,006
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$19,494.33
Current Value
$15,232.25
Period P&L
$-4,262.08
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
6 / 15
Best Trade
+15.91%
Worst Trade
-7.89%
Avg Trade Return
-0.88%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$818,641.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,262.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,262.08
Gross Return
-21.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,494.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:30am ET $233.29 83 $19,363.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $254.11 83 $21,091.13 $21,222.39 +$1,728.06
(+8.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET $255.85 82 $20,979.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET $252.62 82 $20,714.43 $20,957.12 $-265.27
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET $244.64 85 $20,794.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET $250.77 85 $21,315.03 $21,477.75 +$520.63
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET $252.70 84 $21,226.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:25pm ET $250.02 84 $21,001.68 $21,252.63 $-225.12
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET $242.08 87 $21,060.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:35am ET $238.56 87 $20,754.72 $20,946.43 $-306.20
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:45am ET $159.17 131 $20,851.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $163.38 131 $21,402.78 $21,497.94 +$551.51
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $165.05 130 $21,456.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET $163.10 130 $21,203.65 $21,245.09 $-252.85
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $166.17 127 $21,103.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $164.30 127 $20,866.10 $21,007.60 $-237.49
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:00am ET $157.26 133 $20,915.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:20am ET $161.25 133 $21,446.25 $21,538.27 +$530.67
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $203.68 105 $21,386.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $190.04 105 $19,954.20 $20,106.07 $-1,432.20
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $164.45 122 $20,062.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET $190.62 122 $23,255.64 $23,298.81 +$3,192.74
(+15.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $205.16 113 $23,183.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $194.87 113 $22,019.75 $22,135.48 $-1,163.33
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
13 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $199.40 111 $22,133.95 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $185.40 111 $20,578.85 $20,580.37 $-1,555.11
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $171.60 119 $20,420.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 1:25pm ET $162.73 119 $19,364.87 $19,524.84 $-1,055.53
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $170.60 114 $19,447.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $161.28 114 $18,385.92 $18,462.93 $-1,061.91
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $166.41 110 $18,305.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $156.80 110 $17,248.55 $17,405.83 $-1,057.10
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $166.03 104 $17,267.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $155.23 104 $16,143.40 $16,282.11 $-1,123.72
(-6.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $173.90 93 $16,172.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $163.68 93 $15,221.78 $15,331.19 $-950.92
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $166.41 110 $18,305.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $153.28 110 $16,860.80 $13,886.34 $-1,444.85
(-7.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $172.89 80 $13,831.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $164.21 80 $13,136.40 $13,191.70 $-694.64
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
27.2d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $178.15 74 $13,183.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 74 $15,224.02 $15,232.25 +$2,040.55
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,232.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,232.25
Total Return: +52.32%
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