Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:18:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 4.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,973.93
Current Value
$8,656.96
Period P&L
$683.03
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
7 / 7
Best Trade
+8.41%
Worst Trade
-1.95%
Avg Trade Return
+0.63%
Avg Hold Time
7.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,469.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$683.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$683.03
Gross Return
+8.57%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.57%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,973.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET $113.39 70 $7,937.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET $114.31 70 $8,001.77 $8,038.21 +$64.28
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET $114.46 70 $8,012.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:40am ET $113.85 70 $7,969.40 $7,995.41 $-42.80
(-0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:35am ET $113.89 70 $7,972.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET $114.05 70 $7,983.50 $8,006.61 +$11.20
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $115.60 69 $7,976.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $113.34 69 $7,820.46 $7,851.01 $-155.60
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 11:55am ET $111.02 70 $7,771.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:55pm ET $109.90 70 $7,693.00 $7,772.96 $-78.05
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:30pm ET $112.63 69 $7,771.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $112.47 69 $7,760.43 $7,762.26 $-10.70
(-0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET $110.48 70 $7,733.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET $111.75 70 $7,822.50 $7,851.16 +$88.90
(+1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET $107.02 73 $7,812.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:45pm ET $105.57 73 $7,706.25 $7,744.95 $-106.21
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $106.77 72 $7,687.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET $105.44 72 $7,591.68 $7,649.43 $-95.52
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET $107.57 71 $7,637.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:50am ET $107.63 71 $7,641.73 $7,653.34 +$3.91
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:40am ET $110.46 69 $7,621.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:00am ET $108.59 69 $7,492.71 $7,524.65 $-128.69
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:15am ET $104.01 72 $7,488.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $105.30 72 $7,581.61 $7,617.54 +$92.89
(+1.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $98.32 77 $7,571.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $103.19 77 $7,945.62 $7,992.14 +$374.60
(+4.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
48d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $98.76 80 $7,900.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $107.07 80 $8,565.62 $8,656.96 +$664.82
(+8.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,656.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,343.04
Total Return: -13.43%
Back to Surge