Compendium › Surge › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 16 trades in period

+7.63%
Year to Date Return
$10,117.17
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$9,314.25
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:53:47

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
2.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 7.6/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 6.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
77,034
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,314.25
Current Value
$10,117.17
Period P&L
$710.60
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
5 / 11
Best Trade
+15.37%
Worst Trade
-5.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
18.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$254,817.62
Estimated Fees
$637.04
Gross P&L
$710.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$73.56
Gross Return
+7.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.79%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,314.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET $3,136.63 2 $6,273.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $3,103.42 2 $6,206.84 $9,247.83 $-66.42
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET $3,189.60 2 $6,379.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $3,279.15 2 $6,558.30 $9,426.93 +$179.10
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $3,099.41 3 $9,298.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $3,066.71 3 $9,200.13 $9,328.83 $-98.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $3,109.40 3 $9,328.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $3,076.70 3 $9,230.10 $9,230.73 $-98.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $3,126.10 2 $6,252.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $3,091.50 2 $6,183.00 $9,161.53 $-69.20
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET $3,182.76 2 $6,365.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $3,328.80 2 $6,657.60 $9,453.61 +$292.08
(+4.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:10am ET $3,367.60 2 $6,735.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:30pm ET $3,326.50 2 $6,653.00 $9,371.41 $-82.20
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $3,020.20 3 $9,060.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET $2,986.22 3 $8,958.66 $9,269.47 $-101.94
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $2,955.59 3 $8,866.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET $2,917.36 3 $8,752.08 $9,154.78 $-114.69
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $2,962.62 3 $8,887.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $2,918.73 3 $8,756.19 $9,023.11 $-131.67
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $2,387.00 3 $7,161.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET $2,358.16 3 $7,074.48 $8,936.59 $-86.52
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET $2,013.70 4 $8,054.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $2,069.49 4 $8,277.96 $9,159.75 +$223.16
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $2,061.83 4 $8,247.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET $2,035.40 4 $8,141.58 $9,054.01 $-105.74
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $2,013.43 4 $8,053.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 11:50am ET $2,068.44 4 $8,273.74 $9,274.05 +$220.04
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $2,124.96 4 $9,274.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET $2,009.34 4 $8,769.44 $8,769.44 $-549.71
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 4:50pm ET $2,192.28 4 $8,769.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 6:00pm ET $2,529.20 4 $10,117.17 $10,117.17 +$1,300.51
(+15.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,117.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$117.17
Total Return: +1.17%
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