Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
10.4/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 22.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 21.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,801
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,552.27
Current Value
$11,702.86
Period P&L
$-1,849.41
Max Drawdown
-16.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.37

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+3.40%
Worst Trade
-10.57%
Avg Trade Return
-1.41%
Avg Hold Time
7.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$265,437.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,849.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,849.41
Gross Return
-13.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,552.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:20am ET $566.83 23 $13,037.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $586.12 23 $13,480.65 $13,995.82 +$443.55
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:10am ET $586.00 23 $13,477.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:40am ET $599.47 23 $13,787.81 $14,305.75 +$309.93
(+2.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:25am ET $601.97 23 $13,845.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $595.58 23 $13,698.23 $14,158.66 $-147.09
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:20am ET $531.26 26 $13,812.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $525.41 26 $13,660.77 $14,006.67 $-151.99
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 11:20am ET $531.35 26 $13,815.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET $525.81 26 $13,671.06 $13,862.63 $-144.04
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET $492.66 28 $13,794.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET $496.40 28 $13,899.20 $13,967.35 +$104.72
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:25am ET $493.53 28 $13,818.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 2:55pm ET $488.35 28 $13,673.80 $13,822.31 $-145.04
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $469.99 29 $13,629.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 1:00pm ET $445.75 29 $12,926.75 $13,119.35 $-702.96
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
27.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $400.00 32 $12,800.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $357.72 32 $11,447.04 $11,766.39 $-1,352.96
(-10.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $351.89 33 $11,612.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $349.96 33 $11,548.84 $11,702.86 $-63.53
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,702.86
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,702.86
Total Return: +17.03%
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