Compendium › Surge › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 15 trades in period

-7.55%
Year to Date Return
$11,201.30
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$12,116.50
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:53:25

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
9.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 19.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,410
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,116.50
Current Value
$11,201.30
Period P&L
$-915.20
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
5 / 10
Best Trade
+15.27%
Worst Trade
-6.72%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$344,098.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-915.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-915.20
Gross Return
-7.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,116.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,080.37 11 $11,884.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $1,048.07 11 $11,528.77 $11,761.20 $-355.30
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET $1,069.29 10 $10,692.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET $1,057.86 10 $10,578.55 $11,646.85 $-114.35
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET $1,074.42 10 $10,744.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:35am ET $1,085.32 10 $10,853.20 $11,755.85 +$109.00
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:40am ET $1,088.51 10 $10,885.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,076.87 10 $10,768.70 $11,639.45 $-116.40
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:05am ET $1,044.32 11 $11,487.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $1,032.56 11 $11,358.11 $11,510.04 $-129.41
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $1,043.25 11 $11,475.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $1,071.49 11 $11,786.39 $11,820.68 +$310.64
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET $1,071.95 11 $11,791.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET $1,087.50 11 $11,962.50 $11,991.73 +$171.05
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,088.73 11 $11,976.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:30am ET $1,076.63 11 $11,842.88 $11,858.57 $-133.16
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 1:40pm ET $1,042.55 11 $11,468.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:10pm ET $1,044.62 11 $11,490.82 $11,881.34 +$22.77
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:50am ET $1,107.35 10 $11,073.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:25am ET $1,095.00 10 $10,950.00 $11,757.79 $-123.55
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET $1,039.55 11 $11,435.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:55am ET $1,028.90 11 $11,317.85 $11,640.58 $-117.21
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $899.30 12 $10,791.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 10:40am ET $1,036.58 12 $12,439.02 $13,288.00 +$1,647.42
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,151.72 11 $12,668.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET $1,092.02 11 $12,012.22 $12,631.30 $-656.70
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.27 10 $12,352.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,152.25 10 $11,522.50 $11,801.10 $-830.20
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,177.99 10 $11,779.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:30am ET $1,118.01 10 $11,180.10 $11,201.30 $-599.80
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
34.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,201.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,201.30
Total Return: +12.01%
Back to Surge