Compendium › Surge › LTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 16 trades in period

-27.46%
Year to Date Return
$8,003.83
Current Value
13%
Win Rate
$11,033.56
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:04:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,156
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,033.56
Current Value
$8,003.83
Period P&L
$-3,029.73
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.98

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
2 / 14
Best Trade
+0.82%
Worst Trade
-6.17%
Avg Trade Return
-1.97%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$301,114.03
Estimated Fees
$752.79
Gross P&L
$-3,029.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,782.52
Gross Return
-27.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.28%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,033.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:55am ET $81.45 135 $10,995.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $82.12 135 $11,086.07 $11,123.87 +$90.31
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:50pm ET $83.07 133 $11,048.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:40am ET $82.19 133 $10,931.27 $11,006.83 $-117.04
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:55am ET $81.37 135 $10,984.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:05pm ET $80.45 135 $10,860.75 $10,883.17 $-123.66
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET $81.62 133 $10,855.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $76.58 133 $10,185.14 $10,213.25 $-669.92
(-6.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:30am ET $77.30 132 $10,202.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $76.47 132 $10,094.04 $10,104.35 $-108.90
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET $77.67 130 $10,097.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $76.82 130 $9,986.60 $9,993.85 $-110.50
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:15pm ET $73.32 136 $9,971.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $69.25 136 $9,418.00 $9,440.74 $-553.11
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $68.18 138 $9,408.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $67.19 138 $9,272.22 $9,304.12 $-136.62
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET $69.87 133 $9,292.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $69.10 133 $9,190.30 $9,201.71 $-102.41
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 12:50pm ET $69.68 132 $9,197.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $66.03 132 $8,716.22 $8,720.17 $-481.54
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET $65.46 133 $8,706.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET $64.73 133 $8,609.09 $8,623.08 $-97.09
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET $60.69 142 $8,617.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 1:20pm ET $60.04 142 $8,525.68 $8,530.78 $-92.30
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $60.61 140 $8,485.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $58.50 140 $8,190.00 $8,235.38 $-295.40
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET $54.90 150 $8,235.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $53.93 150 $8,088.83 $8,089.20 $-146.18
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $54.08 149 $8,058.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $53.13 149 $7,916.79 $7,947.40 $-141.80
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $54.21 146 $7,914.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET $54.60 146 $7,971.16 $8,003.83 +$56.43
(+0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,003.83
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,996.17
Total Return: -19.96%
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