Compendium › Surge › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 26 trades in period

+70.32%
Year to Date Return
$15,269.68
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$8,965.12
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:52

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 28.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 27.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,015
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,965.12
Current Value
$15,269.68
Period P&L
$6,304.55
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
10 / 16
Best Trade
+17.68%
Worst Trade
-6.90%
Avg Trade Return
+2.36%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$491,463.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,304.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,304.55
Gross Return
+70.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+70.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,965.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET $9.50 943 $8,958.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET $9.75 943 $9,194.25 $9,200.87 +$235.75
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $10.72 858 $9,193.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET $10.58 858 $9,077.64 $9,085.04 $-115.83
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET $10.43 871 $9,083.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:35am ET $10.30 871 $8,966.95 $8,968.50 $-116.54
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET $10.53 851 $8,961.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 3:00pm ET $10.82 851 $9,203.57 $9,211.04 +$242.54
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $11.19 823 $9,205.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $11.04 823 $9,087.90 $9,093.68 $-117.36
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET $11.47 792 $9,084.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:30am ET $11.22 792 $8,882.28 $8,891.72 $-201.96
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $10.88 817 $8,888.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $10.77 817 $8,795.01 $8,797.76 $-93.96
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $10.39 847 $8,796.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $10.68 847 $9,045.96 $9,047.63 +$249.87
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $10.18 889 $9,045.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $10.06 889 $8,943.34 $8,945.39 $-102.24
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $9.35 956 $8,943.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:00am ET $9.25 956 $8,843.00 $8,845.01 $-100.38
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET $9.36 944 $8,835.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET $9.24 944 $8,727.28 $8,736.54 $-108.47
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET $7.61 1,148 $8,730.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET $7.84 1,148 $9,006.06 $9,012.06 +$275.52
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $8.30 1,086 $9,008.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET $8.19 1,086 $8,888.91 $8,892.60 $-119.46
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET $8.14 1,093 $8,891.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET $8.02 1,093 $8,771.32 $8,772.37 $-120.23
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $7.86 1,116 $8,766.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET $7.71 1,116 $8,605.92 $8,612.11 $-160.26
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.28 928 $8,611.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $8.64 928 $8,017.92 $8,018.19 $-593.92
(-6.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $8.57 935 $8,017.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $8.00 935 $7,480.00 $7,480.57 $-537.62
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $9.40 795 $7,473.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET $10.82 795 $8,605.87 $8,613.45 +$1,132.88
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET $11.85 726 $8,603.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $11.18 726 $8,116.61 $8,126.96 $-486.49
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $11.11 731 $8,125.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $12.94 731 $9,459.36 $9,461.25 +$1,334.29
(+16.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $12.86 735 $9,452.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.94 735 $10,980.90 $10,989.31 +$1,528.06
(+16.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $12.78 859 $10,978.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 12:15pm ET $12.10 859 $10,398.19 $10,409.48 $-579.83
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $11.33 918 $10,400.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $13.04 918 $11,974.39 $11,982.94 +$1,573.45
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $10.05 1,192 $11,979.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.46 1,192 $11,276.32 $11,279.66 $-703.28
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $10.24 1,101 $11,274.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET $12.05 1,101 $13,267.05 $13,272.47 +$1,992.81
(+17.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $11.47 1,157 $13,270.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET $13.20 1,157 $15,268.00 $15,269.68 +$1,997.21
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,269.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,269.68
Total Return: +52.70%
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