Compendium › Surge › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 26 trades in period

+34.25%
Year to Date Return
$11,544.94
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$8,599.80
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:58

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.2/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 16.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.6

30-Day Momentum

9
+3.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.6 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,086
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,599.80
Current Value
$11,544.94
Period P&L
$2,945.14
Max Drawdown
-46.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
11 / 15
Best Trade
+16.39%
Worst Trade
-6.13%
Avg Trade Return
+1.36%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$474,163.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,945.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,945.14
Gross Return
+34.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+34.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,599.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $31.20 275 $8,580.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:40am ET $30.69 275 $8,439.75 $8,459.55 $-140.25
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET $34.89 242 $8,443.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:05am ET $35.83 242 $8,671.20 $8,687.34 +$227.79
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:05am ET $35.90 241 $8,651.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $36.89 241 $8,891.60 $8,927.04 +$239.70
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET $34.59 258 $8,922.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $34.23 258 $8,830.05 $8,834.16 $-92.88
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:50am ET $37.09 238 $8,826.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET $38.10 238 $9,067.80 $9,075.73 +$241.57
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:10am ET $41.65 217 $9,036.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET $41.18 217 $8,936.06 $8,974.82 $-100.91
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET $42.05 213 $8,956.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:15am ET $41.56 213 $8,852.28 $8,870.56 $-104.26
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $46.21 191 $8,825.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:15am ET $47.51 191 $9,074.41 $9,119.82 +$249.26
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $53.83 169 $9,097.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET $53.24 169 $8,997.56 $9,020.11 $-99.71
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $47.50 189 $8,977.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $46.90 189 $8,864.10 $8,906.71 $-113.40
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 11:20am ET $43.56 204 $8,885.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET $44.77 204 $9,133.08 $9,154.57 +$247.86
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $43.36 211 $9,149.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:25pm ET $42.87 211 $9,044.52 $9,049.60 $-104.97
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $41.69 217 $9,046.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET $41.17 217 $8,933.89 $8,936.76 $-112.84
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $43.81 204 $8,936.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:55am ET $45.06 204 $9,192.22 $9,192.76 +$256.00
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:30am ET $38.48 238 $9,158.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $39.53 238 $9,409.33 $9,443.85 +$251.09
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $53.07 177 $9,393.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $50.17 177 $8,880.09 $8,930.87 $-512.98
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $51.99 171 $8,890.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $49.35 171 $8,438.85 $8,479.43 $-451.44
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19d held
18 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $51.69 164 $8,477.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:25am ET $49.10 164 $8,052.40 $8,053.85 $-425.58
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
19 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $58.45 137 $8,007.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:35am ET $54.87 137 $7,516.64 $7,562.84 $-491.01
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $52.09 145 $7,553.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $60.29 145 $8,742.05 $8,751.84 +$1,189.00
(+15.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $71.51 122 $8,724.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $82.68 122 $10,086.96 $10,113.97 +$1,362.13
(+15.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $57.62 175 $10,083.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 12:00pm ET $54.59 175 $9,553.25 $9,583.72 $-530.25
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $118.10 81 $9,566.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $137.45 81 $11,133.45 $11,151.12 +$1,567.40
(+16.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25m held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $147.42 75 $11,056.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $139.65 75 $10,473.75 $10,568.71 $-582.41
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $153.62 68 $10,446.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET $145.58 68 $9,899.44 $10,021.99 $-546.72
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $152.56 65 $9,916.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $175.99 65 $11,439.35 $11,544.94 +$1,522.95
(+15.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,544.94
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,544.94
Total Return: +15.45%
Back to Surge