MU Surge's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
+68.08%
Year to Date Return
$38,597.82
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$22,964.11
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.4/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
69.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 69.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,118
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$22,964.11
Current Value
$38,597.82
Period P&L
$15,633.70
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
14 /
16
Best Trade
+18.92%
Worst Trade
-9.77%
Avg Trade Return
+2.11%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,820,991.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$15,633.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$15,633.70
Gross Return
+68.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+68.08%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $22,964.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $309.77 | 74 | $22,922.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $306.49 | 74 | $22,680.26 | $22,721.76 |
$-242.35 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $335.67 | 67 | $22,489.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $344.44 | 67 | $23,077.15 | $23,309.33 |
+$587.57 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $339.46 | 68 | $23,083.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $344.55 | 68 | $23,429.40 | $23,655.45 |
+$346.12 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $382.36 | 61 | $23,324.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.15 | 61 | $23,921.15 | $24,252.36 |
+$596.91 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $406.78 | 59 | $24,000.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $402.61 | 59 | $23,753.70 | $24,006.04 |
$-246.32 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $414.10 | 57 | $23,603.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $427.65 | 57 | $24,376.05 | $24,778.39 |
+$772.35 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $437.85 | 56 | $24,519.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $433.22 | 56 | $24,260.04 | $24,518.83 |
$-259.56 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $430.15 | 56 | $24,088.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $441.12 | 56 | $24,702.72 | $25,132.87 |
+$614.04 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $395.69 | 63 | $24,928.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $383.05 | 63 | $24,132.30 | $24,336.71 |
$-796.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $391.42 | 62 | $24,268.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $387.37 | 62 | $24,016.94 | $24,085.30 |
$-251.41 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $381.20 | 63 | $24,015.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $376.54 | 63 | $23,722.02 | $23,791.41 |
$-293.89 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET | $411.76 | 57 | $23,470.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $429.02 | 57 | $24,454.42 | $24,775.51 |
+$984.10 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $409.01 | 60 | $24,540.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $419.89 | 60 | $25,193.39 | $25,428.26 |
+$652.75 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 56 | $25,006.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 56 | $23,744.00 | $24,166.02 |
$-1,262.24 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $348.28 | 69 | $24,031.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 69 | $28,578.76 | $28,713.46 |
+$4,547.44 (+18.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.00 | 65 | $28,340.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $502.30 | 65 | $32,649.82 | $33,023.28 |
+$4,309.82 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.40 | 62 | $32,698.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $609.37 | 62 | $37,780.94 | $38,105.42 |
+$5,082.14 (+15.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $679.00 | 56 | $38,024.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $791.74 | 56 | $44,337.72 | $44,419.14 |
+$6,313.72 (+16.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $811.00 | 54 | $43,794.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $731.76 | 54 | $39,515.04 | $40,140.07 |
$-4,279.07 (-9.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $822.46 | 48 | $39,478.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $955.96 | 48 | $45,886.08 | $46,548.07 |
+$6,408.00 (+16.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,009.50 | 46 | $46,437.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $953.80 | 46 | $43,874.80 | $43,985.87 |
$-2,562.20 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $938.26 | 46 | $43,159.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $889.70 | 46 | $40,926.20 | $41,752.11 |
$-2,233.76 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,055.02 | 39 | $41,145.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $992.80 | 39 | $38,719.20 | $39,325.53 |
$-2,426.58 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,003.49 | 39 | $39,136.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.57 | 39 | $35,785.23 | $35,974.46 |
$-3,351.07 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,012.41 | 35 | $35,434.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $961.78 | 35 | $33,662.30 | $34,202.41 |
$-1,772.05 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $977.69 | 34 | $33,241.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $921.45 | 34 | $31,329.13 | $32,290.11 |
$-1,912.30 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $931.08 | 34 | $31,656.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $880.38 | 34 | $29,932.84 | $30,566.40 |
$-1,723.72 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.58 | 33 | $30,279.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $871.53 | 33 | $28,760.65 | $29,047.08 |
$-1,519.32 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $861.74 | 33 | $28,437.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,000.00 | 33 | $33,000.00 | $33,609.66 |
+$4,562.58 (+16.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $946.35 | 35 | $33,122.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $1,088.87 | 35 | $38,110.41 | $38,597.82 |
+$4,988.16 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$38,597.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$28,597.82
Total Return:
+285.98%