Compendium › Surge › NFLX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NFLX
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 9 trades in period

-15.36%
Year to Date Return
$8,639.15
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$10,206.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality 5.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,049
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,206.78
Current Value
$8,639.15
Period P&L
$-1,567.63
Max Drawdown
-20.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.38

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+4.77%
Worst Trade
-12.28%
Avg Trade Return
-1.74%
Avg Hold Time
8.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$172,146.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,567.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,567.63
Gross Return
-15.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,206.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 1:55pm ET $91.13 112 $10,206.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $88.61 112 $9,923.76 $9,923.97 $-282.81
(-2.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $85.14 116 $9,875.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $84.25 116 $9,772.42 $9,820.73 $-103.24
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:30am ET $85.53 114 $9,750.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:00am ET $86.11 114 $9,816.54 $9,886.61 +$65.88
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET $80.68 122 $9,842.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:45am ET $81.56 122 $9,949.71 $9,993.97 +$107.36
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $84.61 118 $9,983.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:50am ET $83.66 118 $9,871.88 $9,882.46 $-111.51
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $76.72 128 $9,820.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.85 128 $9,836.16 $9,898.46 +$16.00
(+0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $101.25 97 $9,820.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $96.05 97 $9,317.04 $9,394.74 $-503.72
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $75.96 123 $9,342.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $66.63 123 $8,194.88 $8,247.15 $-1,147.59
(-12.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $73.35 112 $8,215.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $76.85 112 $8,607.20 $8,639.15 +$392.00
(+4.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,639.15
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,360.85
Total Return: -13.61%
Back to Surge