Compendium › Surge › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 10 trades in period

+6.64%
Year to Date Return
$20,363.42
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$19,095.64
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
16.8/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 42.6/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 41.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$19,095.64
Current Value
$20,363.42
Period P&L
$1,267.78
Max Drawdown
-22.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+15.29%
Worst Trade
-5.60%
Avg Trade Return
+0.78%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$374,828.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,267.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,267.78
Gross Return
+6.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,095.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET $191.20 99 $18,928.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET $189.22 99 $18,732.29 $18,899.62 $-196.02
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 1:25pm ET $186.78 101 $18,864.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.89 101 $18,673.89 $18,708.72 $-190.90
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET $185.70 100 $18,570.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $180.97 100 $18,097.46 $18,236.08 $-472.64
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET $181.94 100 $18,194.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $179.78 100 $17,977.50 $18,019.58 $-216.50
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET $188.53 95 $17,910.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:35am ET $191.37 95 $18,179.68 $18,288.91 +$269.33
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET $194.37 94 $18,270.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:15am ET $192.35 94 $18,080.90 $18,099.50 $-189.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET $189.04 95 $17,958.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:00pm ET $187.06 95 $17,770.70 $17,911.87 $-187.63
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET $182.65 98 $17,899.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $190.88 98 $18,706.24 $18,718.41 +$806.54
(+4.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.60 101 $18,644.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:35pm ET $212.82 101 $21,495.32 $21,569.13 +$2,850.72
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $222.06 97 $21,539.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $209.63 97 $20,334.11 $20,363.42 $-1,205.71
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,363.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,363.42
Total Return: +103.63%
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