Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 17.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-15.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,075
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,003.27
Current Value
$11,649.18
Period P&L
$-4,354.09
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
4 / 13
Best Trade
+15.11%
Worst Trade
-6.36%
Avg Trade Return
-1.73%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$511,100.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,354.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,354.09
Gross Return
-27.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-27.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $16,003.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $194.36 82 $15,937.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $194.22 82 $15,926.04 $15,991.53 $-11.74
(-0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET $193.58 82 $15,873.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $198.73 82 $16,295.86 $16,413.83 +$422.30
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET $201.27 81 $16,302.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET $202.18 81 $16,376.18 $16,487.30 +$73.47
(+0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $190.95 86 $16,421.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $183.58 86 $15,787.88 $15,853.48 $-633.82
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET $175.66 90 $15,809.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET $181.04 90 $16,293.60 $16,337.68 +$484.20
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET $157.32 103 $16,203.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET $155.05 103 $15,969.74 $16,103.47 $-234.21
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $161.53 99 $15,991.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $159.85 99 $15,825.64 $15,937.64 $-165.83
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 1:50pm ET $158.63 100 $15,862.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $156.64 100 $15,664.00 $15,739.14 $-198.50
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET $166.00 94 $15,604.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET $157.04 94 $14,761.97 $14,897.11 $-842.03
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $151.00 98 $14,798.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET $143.44 98 $14,057.12 $14,156.23 $-740.88
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $166.59 84 $13,993.56 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 12:00pm ET $191.76 84 $16,107.96 $16,270.63 +$2,114.40
(+15.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $231.84 70 $16,228.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:10am ET $220.07 70 $15,404.90 $15,446.63 $-824.00
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $143.90 107 $15,397.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $136.45 107 $14,599.62 $14,648.95 $-797.68
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $153.13 95 $14,547.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $143.39 95 $13,622.05 $13,723.65 $-925.30
(-6.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $152.48 90 $13,723.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $144.79 90 $13,031.10 $13,031.55 $-692.10
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 77 $12,916.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 77 $12,146.75 $12,261.55 $-770.00
(-6.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $163.72 74 $12,115.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $155.44 74 $11,502.91 $11,649.18 $-612.37
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,649.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,649.18
Total Return: +16.49%
Back to Surge