Compendium › Surge › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 18 trades in period

-15.52%
Year to Date Return
$3,659.76
Current Value
22%
Win Rate
$4,309.59
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:05:36

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 3.3/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 3.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,169
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$4,309.59
Current Value
$3,659.76
Period P&L
$-668.70
Max Drawdown
-62.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
4 / 14
Best Trade
+13.87%
Worst Trade
-13.49%
Avg Trade Return
-0.77%
Avg Hold Time
20.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$151,868.32
Estimated Fees
$379.67
Gross P&L
$-668.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,048.37
Gross Return
-15.52%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.33%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $4,309.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000591 729,203,045 $4,309.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000673 729,203,045 $4,907.54 $4,907.54 +$597.95
(+13.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET $0.00000690 711,237,681 $4,907.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000683 711,237,681 $4,857.75 $4,857.75 $-49.79
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000680 714,374,999 $4,857.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:40pm ET $0.00000672 714,374,999 $4,800.60 $4,800.60 $-57.15
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000615 780,585,365 $4,800.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET $0.00000607 780,585,365 $4,738.15 $4,738.15 $-62.45
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $0.00000588 805,807,823 $4,738.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $0.00000582 805,807,823 $4,689.80 $4,689.80 $-48.35
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $0.00000593 790,860,033 $4,689.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000513 790,860,033 $4,057.11 $4,057.11 $-632.69
(-13.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $0.00000508 798,643,700 $4,057.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $0.00000498 798,643,700 $3,977.25 $3,977.25 $-79.86
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET $0.00000497 800,251,509 $3,977.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000491 800,251,509 $3,929.23 $3,929.23 $-48.02
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000501 784,277,445 $3,929.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:25pm ET $0.00000522 784,277,445 $4,093.93 $4,093.93 +$164.70
(+4.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000502 815,523,904 $4,093.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000496 815,523,904 $4,045.00 $4,045.00 $-48.93
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $0.00000504 802,579,365 $4,045.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 3:35pm ET $0.00000498 802,579,365 $3,996.85 $3,996.85 $-48.15
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:40am ET $0.00000467 855,856,531 $3,996.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET $0.00000462 855,856,531 $3,954.06 $3,954.06 $-42.79
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000436 906,894,495 $3,954.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000431 906,894,495 $3,908.72 $3,908.72 $-45.34
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:30pm ET $0.00000417 937,342,925 $3,908.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET $0.00000430 937,342,925 $4,030.57 $4,030.57 +$121.85
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET $0.00000385 1,046,901,298 $4,030.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $0.00000395 1,046,901,298 $4,135.26 $4,135.26 +$104.69
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000381 1,085,370,078 $4,135.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000363 1,085,370,078 $3,939.89 $3,939.89 $-195.37
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000378 1,042,298,941 $3,939.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000373 1,042,298,941 $3,887.78 $3,887.78 $-52.11
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $0.00000341 1,140,111,437 $3,887.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.00000321 1,140,111,437 $3,659.76 $3,659.76 $-246.89
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,659.76
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,340.24
Total Return: -63.40%
Back to Surge