Compendium › Surge › PLTR
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PLTR
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 18 trades in period

+14.83%
Year to Date Return
$21,134.38
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$18,405.31
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.5 oversold
20d Trend
-29.6%
5d Trend
-14.4%
EMA20 Dist
-18.7%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
27.0/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
3.6/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality 54.2/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 51.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,083
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$18,405.31
Current Value
$21,134.38
Period P&L
$2,729.07
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
6 / 12
Best Trade
+18.78%
Worst Trade
-5.86%
Avg Trade Return
+1.02%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$640,832.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,729.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,729.07
Gross Return
+14.83%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.83%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PLTR Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $18,405.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:25am ET $179.06 102 $18,264.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET $177.17 102 $18,071.34 $18,212.52 $-192.79
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:15am ET $182.69 99 $18,086.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:00am ET $180.49 99 $17,868.51 $17,994.72 $-217.80
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET $178.30 100 $17,830.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $179.92 100 $17,991.50 $18,156.22 +$161.50
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:35am ET $179.77 100 $17,977.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 1:40pm ET $177.95 100 $17,794.50 $17,973.72 $-182.50
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:25am ET $170.43 105 $17,894.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $168.44 105 $17,685.68 $17,764.77 $-208.95
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:35am ET $169.37 104 $17,614.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET $169.64 104 $17,642.48 $17,792.87 +$28.10
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET $168.99 105 $17,743.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:50am ET $167.20 105 $17,555.48 $17,604.39 $-188.48
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET $136.46 129 $17,602.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $135.04 129 $17,420.16 $17,421.85 $-182.54
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET $141.47 123 $17,400.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $145.05 123 $17,841.15 $17,862.66 +$440.81
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET $132.13 135 $17,837.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:35am ET $130.72 135 $17,647.20 $17,672.31 $-190.35
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $154.76 114 $17,643.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:05am ET $146.73 114 $16,727.22 $16,756.32 $-915.99
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $143.95 116 $16,698.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 11:50am ET $136.73 116 $15,860.10 $15,918.22 $-838.10
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
13 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $148.30 107 $15,868.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $140.77 107 $15,062.37 $15,112.49 $-805.73
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $116.83 129 $15,071.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $134.63 129 $17,367.27 $17,408.69 +$2,296.20
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $131.79 132 $17,396.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $124.07 132 $16,377.24 $16,389.65 $-1,019.04
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $126.78 129 $16,354.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $150.60 129 $19,426.76 $19,461.79 +$3,072.14
(+18.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $160.46 121 $19,415.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:25am ET $184.91 121 $22,374.71 $22,420.84 +$2,959.05
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $177.41 126 $22,353.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $167.20 126 $21,067.20 $21,134.38 $-1,286.46
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $21,134.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$11,134.38
Total Return: +111.34%
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