Compendium › Surge › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 11 trades in period

+4.08%
Year to Date Return
$12,200.84
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$11,722.46
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:37:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 31.3/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 24.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,122
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,722.46
Current Value
$12,200.84
Period P&L
$478.38
Max Drawdown
-14.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
4 / 7
Best Trade
+15.07%
Worst Trade
-6.47%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$248,209.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$478.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$478.38
Gross Return
+4.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,722.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET $627.31 18 $11,291.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:00am ET $618.76 18 $11,137.59 $11,568.47 $-153.99
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET $625.50 18 $11,259.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET $627.00 18 $11,285.91 $11,595.38 +$26.91
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET $628.61 18 $11,314.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET $624.87 18 $11,247.66 $11,528.06 $-67.32
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET $615.22 18 $11,073.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $608.50 18 $10,953.00 $11,407.10 $-120.96
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:20am ET $623.06 18 $11,215.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET $626.49 18 $11,276.73 $11,468.77 +$61.67
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET $627.40 18 $11,293.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $620.46 18 $11,168.28 $11,343.94 $-124.83
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $607.68 18 $10,938.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $614.73 18 $11,065.14 $11,470.84 +$126.90
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $615.03 18 $11,070.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $613.06 18 $11,035.08 $11,435.38 $-35.46
(-0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $605.42 18 $10,897.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $601.26 18 $10,822.68 $11,360.50 $-74.88
(-0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $609.17 18 $10,965.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $700.96 18 $12,617.28 $13,012.72 +$1,652.22
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
29.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $738.03 17 $12,546.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $690.27 17 $11,734.63 $12,200.84 $-811.88
(-6.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
32d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,200.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,200.84
Total Return: +22.01%
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