Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:55

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,488
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,768.71
Current Value
$5,730.80
Period P&L
$-2,037.91
Max Drawdown
-43.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
4 / 17
Best Trade
+15.17%
Worst Trade
-6.00%
Avg Trade Return
-1.37%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$311,880.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,037.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,037.91
Gross Return
-26.23%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,768.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 11:35am ET $19.80 394 $7,801.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:05am ET $20.32 394 $8,006.08 $8,020.87 +$204.88
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $19.84 404 $8,015.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:00pm ET $19.64 404 $7,932.54 $7,938.01 $-82.86
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET $19.60 405 $7,935.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET $20.14 405 $8,154.68 $8,156.71 +$218.70
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:30am ET $20.84 391 $8,148.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET $20.61 391 $8,058.51 $8,066.78 $-89.93
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET $19.33 417 $8,060.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $19.12 417 $7,974.75 $7,980.96 $-85.82
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $16.51 483 $7,971.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $16.32 483 $7,880.15 $7,889.19 $-91.77
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET $15.48 509 $7,876.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $15.30 509 $7,787.70 $7,800.12 $-89.07
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:05am ET $14.58 535 $7,798.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET $14.41 535 $7,712.02 $7,713.45 $-86.67
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET $14.20 543 $7,710.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET $14.56 543 $7,908.79 $7,911.64 +$198.19
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET $14.86 532 $7,908.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.70 532 $7,823.06 $7,826.52 $-85.12
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $15.28 512 $7,825.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $15.13 512 $7,744.00 $7,744.60 $-81.92
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $18.08 428 $7,739.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $17.89 428 $7,654.78 $7,659.64 $-84.96
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $16.75 457 $7,653.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 12:05pm ET $15.91 457 $7,269.82 $7,275.62 $-384.02
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $16.77 433 $7,261.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 11:35am ET $15.91 433 $6,891.19 $6,905.45 $-370.17
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 443 $6,897.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $14.75 443 $6,534.25 $6,542.19 $-363.26
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.39 425 $6,540.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET $17.73 425 $7,533.13 $7,534.57 +$992.38
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $18.08 416 $7,523.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET $17.16 416 $7,138.56 $7,149.77 $-384.80
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $18.12 394 $7,139.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $17.17 394 $6,764.94 $6,775.43 $-374.34
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $17.83 380 $6,775.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $16.76 380 $6,368.80 $6,368.83 $-406.60
(-6.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $16.42 387 $6,354.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET $15.58 387 $6,029.42 $6,043.71 $-325.12
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $16.03 377 $6,043.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $15.20 377 $5,730.40 $5,730.80 $-312.91
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,730.80
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,269.20
Total Return: -42.69%
Back to Surge