Compendium › Surge › SHIBUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SHIBUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 20 trades in period

-16.11%
Year to Date Return
$7,517.30
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$8,866.85
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:51:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 4.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,985
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,866.85
Current Value
$7,517.30
Period P&L
$-1,428.86
Max Drawdown
-38.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.27

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
6 / 14
Best Trade
+4.77%
Worst Trade
-6.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.78%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$344,936.04
Estimated Fees
$862.34
Gross P&L
$-1,428.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,291.20
Gross Return
-16.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.84%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,866.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:35am ET $0.00000785 1,129,535,031 $8,866.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET $0.00000805 1,129,535,031 $9,092.76 $9,092.76 +$225.91
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:35am ET $0.00000881 1,032,095,346 $9,092.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 11:05am ET $0.00000905 1,032,095,346 $9,340.46 $9,340.46 +$247.70
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000866 1,078,575,057 $9,340.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET $0.00000875 1,078,575,057 $9,437.53 $9,437.53 +$97.07
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET $0.00000879 1,073,666,666 $9,437.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $0.00000870 1,073,666,666 $9,340.90 $9,340.90 $-96.63
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000845 1,105,431,952 $9,340.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000867 1,105,431,952 $9,584.10 $9,584.10 +$243.20
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET $0.00000884 1,084,174,208 $9,584.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.00000875 1,084,174,208 $9,486.52 $9,486.52 $-97.58
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET $0.00000889 1,067,100,112 $9,486.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET $0.00000880 1,067,100,112 $9,390.48 $9,390.48 $-96.04
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:30pm ET $0.00000844 1,112,616,113 $9,390.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000785 1,112,616,113 $8,734.04 $8,734.04 $-656.44
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET $0.00000805 1,084,973,913 $8,734.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $0.00000796 1,084,973,913 $8,636.39 $8,636.39 $-97.65
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:45am ET $0.00000789 1,094,599,493 $8,636.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000779 1,094,599,493 $8,526.93 $8,526.93 $-109.46
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $0.00000792 1,076,632,575 $8,526.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000770 1,076,632,575 $8,290.07 $8,290.07 $-236.86
(-2.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000778 1,065,561,696 $8,290.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:40am ET $0.00000767 1,065,561,696 $8,172.86 $8,172.86 $-117.21
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:00am ET $0.00000771 1,060,033,722 $8,172.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET $0.00000763 1,060,033,722 $8,088.06 $8,088.06 $-84.80
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $0.00000701 1,153,788,873 $8,088.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:55am ET $0.00000692 1,153,788,873 $7,984.22 $7,984.22 $-103.84
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET $0.00000694 1,150,463,976 $7,984.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET $0.00000683 1,150,463,976 $7,857.67 $7,857.67 $-126.55
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET $0.00000622 1,263,290,996 $7,857.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $0.00000639 1,263,290,996 $8,072.43 $8,072.43 +$214.76
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000608 1,327,702,302 $8,072.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $0.00000600 1,327,702,302 $7,966.21 $7,966.21 $-106.22
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:10am ET $0.00000629 1,266,488,076 $7,966.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET $0.00000659 1,266,488,076 $8,346.16 $8,346.16 +$379.95
(+4.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $0.00000599 1,393,348,915 $8,346.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET $0.00000569 1,393,348,915 $7,928.16 $7,928.16 $-458.69
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.00000521 1,521,719,770 $7,928.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $0.00000494 1,521,719,770 $7,517.30 $7,517.30 $-449.48
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,517.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,482.70
Total Return: -24.83%
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