Compendium › Surge › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 21 trades in period

-24.90%
Year to Date Return
$8,636.33
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$11,499.39
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:26:00

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,499.39
Current Value
$8,636.33
Period P&L
$-2,863.06
Max Drawdown
-31.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.36

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
8 / 13
Best Trade
+3.40%
Worst Trade
-11.20%
Avg Trade Return
-1.25%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$464,182.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,863.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,863.06
Gross Return
-24.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,499.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 10:50am ET $49.17 231 $11,358.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET $49.72 231 $11,485.32 $11,517.87 +$127.05
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET $49.81 231 $11,506.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $48.55 231 $11,215.05 $11,226.81 $-291.06
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.91 234 $11,210.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $48.22 234 $11,284.51 $11,300.38 +$73.57
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET $48.24 234 $11,288.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $47.63 234 $11,145.42 $11,157.64 $-142.74
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $47.45 235 $11,150.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:35am ET $48.45 235 $11,384.58 $11,391.46 +$233.82
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET $48.63 234 $11,379.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $48.08 234 $11,250.72 $11,262.76 $-128.70
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.69 236 $11,254.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $47.82 236 $11,286.58 $11,294.50 +$31.74
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $50.28 224 $11,262.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $49.71 224 $11,135.04 $11,166.82 $-127.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $47.00 237 $11,139.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $48.18 237 $11,418.66 $11,446.48 +$279.66
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $48.23 237 $11,430.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $47.72 237 $11,309.64 $11,325.61 $-120.87
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET $48.22 234 $11,283.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:00am ET $47.58 234 $11,133.72 $11,175.85 $-149.76
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET $47.95 233 $11,172.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $49.19 233 $11,461.27 $11,464.77 +$288.92
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $48.98 234 $11,461.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $50.65 234 $11,851.47 $11,854.92 +$390.15
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $51.18 231 $11,822.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:25am ET $50.59 231 $11,686.29 $11,718.63 $-136.29
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $47.82 245 $11,715.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET $47.70 245 $11,686.50 $11,689.23 $-29.40
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $48.10 243 $11,688.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $49.37 243 $11,995.70 $11,996.55 +$307.32
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 212 $11,982.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 212 $10,640.49 $10,654.80 $-1,341.75
(-11.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
18 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $38.53 276 $10,634.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $36.56 276 $10,090.56 $10,111.11 $-543.69
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $39.45 256 $10,099.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 10:00am ET $37.39 256 $9,571.84 $9,583.75 $-527.36
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $38.09 251 $9,560.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:20am ET $36.16 251 $9,076.16 $9,099.32 $-484.43
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $35.84 253 $9,067.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 11:45am ET $34.01 253 $8,604.53 $8,636.33 $-462.99
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,636.33
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,363.67
Total Return: -13.64%
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