Compendium › Surge › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 25 trades in period

+5.71%
Year to Date Return
$14,092.05
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$13,331.10
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:51:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 26.0/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 23.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,331.10
Current Value
$14,092.05
Period P&L
$760.95
Max Drawdown
-37.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
10 / 15
Best Trade
+24.20%
Worst Trade
-8.04%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$687,223.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$760.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$760.95
Gross Return
+5.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,331.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:45am ET $54.29 245 $13,301.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:05pm ET $53.70 245 $13,156.50 $13,186.31 $-144.79
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $54.94 240 $13,184.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:15pm ET $55.68 240 $13,363.20 $13,365.11 +$178.80
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $55.68 240 $13,362.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 3:35pm ET $55.09 240 $13,221.94 $13,225.05 $-140.06
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET $55.26 239 $13,207.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $55.67 239 $13,305.27 $13,323.18 +$98.13
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET $55.89 238 $13,301.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:20am ET $55.18 238 $13,131.65 $13,153.01 $-170.17
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 11:10am ET $52.39 251 $13,149.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:30pm ET $51.80 251 $13,002.25 $13,005.37 $-147.64
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET $52.17 249 $12,991.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $51.65 249 $12,860.85 $12,874.74 $-130.63
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $54.25 237 $12,856.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:30am ET $55.18 237 $13,077.66 $13,096.15 +$221.41
(+1.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET $55.34 236 $13,060.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:20am ET $56.70 236 $13,382.29 $13,417.70 +$321.55
(+2.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET $56.65 236 $13,368.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:55am ET $56.84 236 $13,413.06 $13,462.54 +$44.84
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET $54.97 244 $13,413.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $53.58 244 $13,073.52 $13,122.16 $-340.38
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET $49.79 263 $13,094.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET $51.15 263 $13,453.37 $13,480.76 +$358.60
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:30am ET $51.17 263 $13,457.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:00am ET $52.05 263 $13,688.34 $13,711.86 +$231.10
(+1.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET $49.10 279 $13,698.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET $48.31 279 $13,478.49 $13,491.65 $-220.21
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $47.35 284 $13,448.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $44.75 284 $12,709.00 $12,751.83 $-739.82
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $45.06 282 $12,706.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET $42.71 282 $12,043.80 $12,088.71 $-663.12
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $39.25 307 $12,049.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $48.75 307 $14,966.25 $15,005.21 +$2,916.50
(+24.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $57.87 259 $14,988.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $66.66 259 $17,264.94 $17,281.82 +$2,276.61
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18d held
19 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $80.67 214 $17,263.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $76.50 214 $16,369.93 $16,388.37 $-893.45
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $82.88 197 $16,327.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $78.71 197 $15,505.87 $15,566.88 $-821.49
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 199 $15,525.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $71.75 199 $14,277.26 $14,318.16 $-1,248.72
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $74.74 191 $14,275.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $70.93 191 $13,548.58 $13,591.40 $-726.76
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $70.11 193 $13,530.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:40am ET $66.56 193 $12,845.12 $12,906.25 $-685.15
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $65.56 196 $12,849.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $75.55 196 $14,807.80 $14,864.29 +$1,958.04
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $75.60 196 $14,817.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET $71.66 196 $14,045.36 $14,092.05 $-772.24
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,092.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,092.05
Total Return: +40.92%
Back to Surge