Compendium › Surge › USO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
USO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

+55.52%
Year to Date Return
$11,307.15
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$7,270.54
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:06:10

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 17.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.8

30-Day Momentum

8
+2.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.5 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,270.54
Current Value
$11,307.15
Period P&L
$4,036.61
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
12 / 16
Best Trade
+19.01%
Worst Trade
-7.44%
Avg Trade Return
+1.93%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$486,399.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,036.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,036.61
Gross Return
+55.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+55.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,270.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $68.76 105 $7,220.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $70.16 105 $7,366.80 $7,417.13 +$146.59
(+2.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET $70.29 105 $7,379.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $69.58 105 $7,305.90 $7,343.11 $-74.02
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 1:20pm ET $69.17 106 $7,332.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $71.20 106 $7,547.20 $7,558.29 +$215.18
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:30am ET $71.69 105 $7,527.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $70.94 105 $7,448.70 $7,479.54 $-78.75
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:35am ET $71.20 105 $7,475.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $73.46 105 $7,713.30 $7,717.37 +$237.83
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $74.61 103 $7,684.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:00pm ET $73.22 103 $7,541.66 $7,574.20 $-143.17
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $73.40 103 $7,560.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $72.16 103 $7,432.01 $7,446.01 $-128.19
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:50am ET $74.47 99 $7,372.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET $76.44 99 $7,567.56 $7,641.04 +$195.03
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:40pm ET $76.73 99 $7,596.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $79.72 99 $7,892.28 $7,937.18 +$296.14
(+3.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $76.77 103 $7,907.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:05pm ET $75.90 103 $7,817.70 $7,847.57 $-89.61
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $78.27 100 $7,827.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $76.81 100 $7,681.00 $7,701.57 $-146.00
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:20am ET $77.40 99 $7,662.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $77.85 99 $7,707.15 $7,746.12 +$44.55
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:35am ET $78.19 99 $7,741.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $77.65 99 $7,687.35 $7,692.17 $-53.95
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $76.51 100 $7,651.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $76.11 100 $7,611.00 $7,652.17 $-40.00
(-0.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $94.44 81 $7,649.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $108.66 81 $8,801.46 $8,803.99 +$1,151.82
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $115.07 76 $8,745.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET $108.11 76 $8,216.35 $8,275.17 $-528.82
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $116.71 70 $8,169.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $138.90 70 $9,723.00 $9,828.47 +$1,553.30
(+19.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $133.26 73 $9,728.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:55am ET $126.26 73 $9,216.98 $9,317.38 $-511.09
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $119.89 77 $9,231.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $139.33 77 $10,728.40 $10,814.25 +$1,496.87
(+16.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $146.01 74 $10,804.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $135.51 74 $10,027.74 $10,037.25 $-777.00
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
21 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $143.61 69 $9,909.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $136.09 69 $9,390.21 $9,518.37 $-518.88
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $135.56 70 $9,489.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $128.32 70 $8,982.40 $9,011.57 $-506.80
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $112.24 80 $8,979.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET $129.14 80 $10,331.20 $10,363.57 +$1,352.00
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $138.35 74 $10,237.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $128.06 74 $9,476.29 $9,601.96 $-761.61
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $112.24 80 $8,979.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $130.10 80 $10,408.00 $11,030.76 +$1,428.80
(+15.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23d held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $134.80 81 $10,918.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $127.96 81 $10,364.76 $10,476.72 $-554.04
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $133.89 78 $10,443.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $154.70 78 $12,066.60 $12,099.90 +$1,623.18
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $159.44 75 $11,958.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $148.87 75 $11,165.25 $11,307.15 $-792.75
(-6.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,307.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,307.15
Total Return: +13.07%
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