Compendium › Surge › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 15 trades in period

-8.77%
Year to Date Return
$21,598.31
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$23,552.13
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:01:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
19.6/35
Total Return
17.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 44.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 39.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,187
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$23,552.13
Current Value
$21,598.31
Period P&L
$-2,064.73
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
5 / 10
Best Trade
+4.04%
Worst Trade
-7.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
22.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$699,617.83
Estimated Fees
$1,749.04
Gross P&L
$-2,064.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,813.77
Gross Return
-8.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.19%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $23,552.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:10am ET $1.93 12,210 $23,550.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 12:00pm ET $1.98 12,210 $24,163.71 $24,165.32 +$613.19
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:30am ET $2.16 11,185 $24,165.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:10pm ET $2.22 11,185 $24,775.89 $24,776.02 +$610.70
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $2.11 11,755 $24,774.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 12:55pm ET $2.16 11,755 $25,409.26 $25,410.44 +$634.42
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $2.12 11,992 $25,410.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $2.10 11,992 $25,143.63 $25,143.86 $-266.58
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET $2.08 12,066 $25,141.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $2.06 12,066 $24,848.72 $24,850.66 $-293.20
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $2.08 11,973 $24,849.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $1.92 11,973 $22,991.75 $22,992.45 $-1,858.21
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $1.95 11,771 $22,992.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:20am ET $1.93 11,771 $22,747.46 $22,747.61 $-244.84
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET $1.92 11,850 $22,746.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET $1.92 11,850 $22,744.42 $22,745.95 $-1.66
(-0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $1.90 11,948 $22,744.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $1.88 11,948 $22,507.64 $22,509.38 $-236.57
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET $1.62 13,853 $22,508.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 3:45pm ET $1.61 13,853 $22,281.17 $22,282.19 $-227.19
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET $1.50 14,819 $22,281.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $1.54 14,819 $22,849.27 $22,849.61 +$567.42
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $1.44 15,815 $22,849.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $1.40 15,815 $22,128.35 $22,128.53 $-721.08
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $1.43 15,524 $22,127.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $1.41 15,524 $21,878.75 $21,879.29 $-249.24
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $1.41 15,568 $21,879.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET $1.46 15,568 $22,763.69 $22,763.71 +$884.42
(+4.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $1.41 16,103 $22,763.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $1.34 16,103 $21,598.31 $21,598.31 $-1,276.31
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $21,598.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$11,598.31
Total Return: +115.98%
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