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Luke Liquidation
24

Luke Liquidation

The Vulture

🦅 Crypto Native 📅 12 years old (Born 2014)

"Liquidations are a feature, not a bug. I trade the cascade."

Sharp eyes, always scanning. Vulture-like watchfulness. Keeps liquidation levels memorized.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Luke Liquidation $10,000 and let her trade 12 crypto symbols from Jan 3, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$13,937
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$3,937)
+39.37%
2-Year ROI
56.5%
Win Rate
217
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+3.5%
1 Month
+8.7%
3 Months
+6.8%
6 Months
+3.4%
YTD
+1.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$3,794,914
217 trades
Crypto Fees
$9,487
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 10% dump with cascade liquidations

After a 10% dump with cascade liquidations, sellers are exhausted—they've been forced out. Luke buys the bounce, targeting 5%.

🎯 Best Suited For

Post-liquidation bounces

"One man's margin call is my entry signal."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Once the leveraged traders are gone, only unleveraged sellers remain—and they're not forced to sell.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal (Post-Liquidation Bounce)

📈 Entry Signal (Post-Liquidation Bounce)

4h Price Drop ≥ 10% AND Volume ≥ 3× average
→ BUY - Leveraged sellers exhausted, bounce imminent

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: 24 hours (quick bounce play)

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

DUMP_THRESHOLD_PCT: 10%
VOLUME_MULTIPLIER: 3
LOOKBACK_HOURS: 4
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: 3%
MAX_HOLD_HOURS: 24

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Leveraged crypto liquidation cascades

By 2014, exchanges offered 10x, 50x, even 100x leverage. Liquidation cascades became a regular feature of crypto markets.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 PEPEUSD ₿ 43 0🧊 +214.90% $10,000 $31,490 51 37% $22,321 +$21,490 -49.0% 3.5h ✓ -
2 SHIBUSD ₿ — — +141.37% $10,000 $24,137 14 64% $2,946 +$14,137 -19.9% 3.5h ✓ -
3 XRPUSD ₿ 44 18🧊 +95.58% $10,000 $19,558 31 71% $3,186 +$9,558 -25.9% 4.6h ✓ -
4 UNIUSD ₿ 25 27 +23.09% $10,000 $12,309 29 59% $2,133 +$2,309 -38.5% 4.2h ✓ -
5 DOTUSD ₿ — — +15.11% $10,000 $11,511 12 67% $1,261 +$1,511 -12.0% 3.3h ✓ -
6 ETHUSD ₿ — — +11.19% $10,000 $11,119 5 60% $414 +$1,119 -13.6% 2.9h ✓ -
7 BTCUSD ₿ — — +5.90% $10,000 $10,590 1 100% $52 +$590 -0.0% 0.3h ✓ -
8 AVAXUSD ₿ — — +0.48% $10,000 $10,048 9 44% $1,345 +$48 -33.1% 3.6h ✓ -
9 LINKUSD ₿ 6 — +0.48% $10,000 $10,048 24 42% $1,976 +$48 -13.1% 3.7h ✓ -
10 LTCUSD ₿ — — -3.67% $10,000 $9,634 9 67% $805 -$367 -31.9% 5.0h ✓ -
11 SOLUSD ₿ — — -4.87% $10,000 $9,513 6 33% $818 -$487 -22.9% 3.8h ✓ -
12 DOGEUSD ₿ 4 10 -27.18% $10,000 $7,282 26 35% $1,561 -$2,718 -31.7% 5.6h ✓ -

👤 Personality

Opportunistic, patient, slightly predatory. Doesn't feel bad about profiting from others' margin calls.