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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Mar 25, 2026 → Sep 25, 2026 (184d)

📊 Last 6 Months Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last 6 months across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$13,137
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $12,776 (+$362)
+2.83%
Last 6 Months ROI
40.8%
Win Rate
3,020
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.3%
1 Month
+3.5%
3 Months
+2.8%
6 Months
+3.4%
YTD
+2.8%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 6 Months)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Last 6 Months)

Stock Volume
$41,446,230
2,768 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$206,097
252 trades
Crypto Fees
$515
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 6 Months: Mar 25, 2026 → Sep 25, 2026 (184 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 6M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 AMD 45 55 +161.94% $11,213 $29,372 51 59% - +$18,159 -43.0% 3.3d ✓ -
2 SOXL 69 12🧊 +77.47% $44,008 $78,101 70 51% - +$34,093 -36.3% 1.6d ✓ -
3 NET 67 34🧊 +71.53% $24,289 $41,663 45 53% - +$17,374 -33.4% 4.1d ✓ -
4 MU 69 63 +56.01% $35,707 $55,706 59 51% - +$19,999 -27.8% 3.5d ✓ -
5 INTC 14 34 +47.15% $7,945 $11,691 52 42% - +$3,746 -58.2% 3.6d ✓ -
6 ARKK 27 — +46.24% $9,968 $14,577 26 54% - +$4,609 -26.4% 5.4d ✓ -
7 LTCUSD ₿ 3 52🔥 +43.44% $448 $642 65 45% $10,524 +$194 -95.7% 1.1d ✓ -
8 BTCUSD ₿ 5 30🔥 +41.09% $2,949 $4,161 40 48% $13,189 +$1,212 -78.6% 2.4d ✓ -
9 UNH 5 1 +39.94% $4,358 $6,099 19 53% - +$1,741 -54.0% 7.3d ✓ -
10 GOOGL 59 29🧊 +34.55% $20,085 $27,024 23 52% - +$6,939 -25.2% 7.9d ✓ -
11 MRNA 13 44🔥 +33.70% $8,363 $11,182 53 43% - +$2,818 -73.8% 2.3d ✓ -
12 ETHUSD ₿ 3 32🔥 +33.40% $270 $360 67 42% $9,989 +$90 -98.0% 1.4d ✓ -
13 XLK 35 — +32.43% $12,662 $16,768 20 55% - +$4,106 -25.5% 11.5d ✓ -
14 AAPL 40 — +31.45% $14,324 $18,829 15 67% - +$4,505 -21.5% 10.1d ✓ -
15 MSFT 38 — +30.69% $14,132 $18,469 21 48% - +$4,337 -21.2% 13.3d ✓ -
16 CSCO 68 — +27.34% $21,820 $27,786 19 47% - +$5,966 -9.1% 15.2d ✓ -
17 ARM 37 35 +27.28% $15,731 $20,022 57 44% - +$4,291 -31.3% 2.7d ✓ -
18 TSLA 28 — +26.66% $12,243 $15,507 32 50% - +$3,264 -34.1% 2.9d ✓ -
19 GILD 36 34 +25.33% $13,582 $17,022 19 53% - +$3,440 -20.9% 10.3d ✓ -
20 META 37 65🔥 +24.08% $15,916 $19,748 27 48% - +$3,833 -26.1% 6.9d ✓ -
21 ABBV 32 — +21.79% $11,954 $14,559 20 50% - +$2,605 -17.7% 11.9d ✓ -
22 PANW 30 6🧊 +20.93% $12,753 $15,422 36 47% - +$2,669 -29.0% 7.1d ✓ -
23 WFC 26 0🧊 +20.76% $11,162 $13,479 13 62% - +$2,317 -25.5% 8.9d ✓ -
24 V 27 — +19.86% $11,386 $13,648 11 55% - +$2,261 -14.4% 14.2d ✓ -
25 QQQ 31 — +19.07% $12,892 $15,351 12 50% - +$2,459 -29.6% 15.7d ✓ -
26 PYPL 15 2 +18.30% $9,059 $10,717 24 50% - +$1,658 -35.9% 7.8d ✓ -
27 TMO 15 — +17.54% $9,419 $11,071 16 56% - +$1,652 -28.6% 11.0d ✓ -
28 AMC 4 5 +17.13% $4,194 $4,912 55 45% - +$718 -59.9% 2.4d ✓ -
29 JPM 44 0🧊 +17.10% $16,966 $19,867 10 50% - +$2,901 -20.8% 10.9d ✓ -
30 VTI 40 — +16.27% $13,321 $15,488 8 63% - +$2,167 -16.1% 20.8d ✓ -
31 BAC 28 1🧊 +15.30% $12,361 $14,253 11 55% - +$1,891 -21.4% 9.5d ✓ -
32 SCHW 52 0🧊 +13.33% $15,784 $17,889 15 53% - +$2,104 -10.8% 11.7d ✓ -
33 DIA 25 — +13.25% $10,734 $12,156 6 83% - +$1,422 -20.7% 20.9d ✓ -
34 ADBE 4 2 +12.93% $5,942 $6,711 37 43% - +$768 -42.0% 8.2d ✓ -
35 JNJ 41 0🧊 +12.92% $14,845 $16,763 15 47% - +$1,918 -13.8% 16.3d ✓ -
36 MS 20 — +12.48% $10,675 $12,007 19 47% - +$1,332 -29.2% 9.0d ✓ -
37 SPY 38 — +12.10% $13,412 $15,035 8 63% - +$1,623 -12.7% 18.7d ✓ -
38 MA 31 — +11.99% $12,419 $13,908 12 50% - +$1,489 -11.3% 13.9d ✓ -
39 VOO 35 — +11.66% $13,126 $14,657 8 63% - +$1,531 -15.4% 18.9d ✓ -
40 BLK 31 0🧊 +11.04% $12,861 $14,280 17 47% - +$1,420 -17.2% 12.3d ✓ -
41 MRK 4 — +10.72% $7,575 $8,387 17 47% - +$812 -45.0% 9.8d ✓ -
42 XLF 40 — +10.31% $13,345 $14,721 8 63% - +$1,376 -11.5% 17.6d ✓ -
43 NVDA 33 18 +10.26% $16,903 $18,637 30 43% - +$1,734 -43.7% 3.8d ✓ -
44 BIIB 5 — +10.23% $6,436 $7,094 18 44% - +$658 -46.7% 7.5d ✓ -
45 GME 25 59🔥 +10.12% $14,256 $15,699 24 42% - +$1,443 -32.0% 2.9d ✓ -
46 BMY 14 — +10.03% $9,478 $10,429 18 44% - +$951 -28.4% 7.9d ✓ -
47 SOLUSD ₿ — — +9.96% $10,092 $11,098 NO ENTRY - $1,398 +$1,005 -99.5% 21.3h 1 Feb 6, 2026
48 AMGN 16 0 +8.90% $10,359 $11,281 14 50% - +$922 -28.3% 11.3d ✓ -
49 PM 27 17 +6.76% $13,056 $13,938 16 44% - +$883 -21.9% 12.3d ✓ -
50 VRTX 22 — +6.20% $12,147 $12,900 16 38% - +$753 -25.6% 10.7d ✓ -
51 IWM 27 — +6.13% $12,748 $13,530 11 45% - +$781 -23.6% 13.7d ✓ -
52 USO 33 45 +5.99% $14,814 $15,701 42 50% - +$887 -18.0% 8.8d ✓ -
53 BRK-B 27 — +5.83% $12,592 $13,326 7 57% - +$734 -15.7% 16.3d ✓ -
54 XRPUSD ₿ 3 10 +4.96% $279 $293 80 38% $12,899 +$14 -96.4% 1.1d ✓ -
55 VZ 25 0🧊 +4.68% $12,110 $12,677 16 44% - +$567 -14.2% 14.1d ✓ -
56 PFE 5 — +3.68% $8,941 $9,270 11 36% - +$329 -23.5% 10.8d ✓ -
57 KO 31 — +3.45% $13,461 $13,926 12 50% - +$464 -13.1% 18.7d ✓ -
58 CVX 43 0🧊 +2.90% $16,411 $16,887 21 43% - +$476 -13.5% 13.2d ✓ -
59 RIOT 5 37🔥 +2.85% $5,804 $5,970 62 40% - +$165 -51.3% 1.3d ✓ -
60 DIS 13 1 +0.78% $10,671 $10,755 18 39% - +$83 -24.9% 11.6d ✓ -
61 SLB 29 5🧊 +0.15% $14,504 $14,525 28 39% - +$22 -22.2% 8.1d ✓ -
62 PLTR 69 32🧊 -0.10% $58,155 $58,097 42 40% - -$58 -28.0% 2.8d ✓ -
63 RBLX 22 64🔥 -0.64% $12,416 $12,337 42 45% - -$79 -46.8% 3.9d ✓ -
64 AMZN 31 — -1.01% $15,346 $15,191 24 38% - -$155 -18.5% 8.3d ✓ -
65 CMCSA 5 1 -1.09% $6,776 $6,702 22 32% - -$74 -36.1% 11.9d ✓ -
66 C 33 0🧊 -1.52% $17,276 $17,013 19 37% - -$263 -29.6% 8.3d ✓ -
67 LLY 20 0 -3.05% $12,705 $12,318 26 38% - -$388 -36.7% 6.7d ✓ -
68 WMT 37 — -3.23% $17,504 $16,939 15 40% - -$565 -17.6% 14.4d ✓ -
69 XLE 18 — -3.34% $11,827 $11,432 16 38% - -$395 -24.7% 12.5d ✓ -
70 CRM 5 3 -3.73% $8,097 $7,795 33 39% - -$302 -48.1% 7.3d ✓ -
71 GLD 62 — -3.87% $24,568 $23,617 12 42% - -$951 -6.1% 15.7d ✓ -
72 AVGO 19 1 -4.20% $12,287 $11,771 33 42% - -$516 -27.0% 3.7d ✓ -
73 COP 24 1🧊 -4.72% $13,328 $12,699 25 40% - -$629 -20.6% 9.4d ✓ -
74 AXP 23 1🧊 -5.13% $13,528 $12,834 13 31% - -$694 -27.6% 10.6d ✓ -
75 SPXU 4 0 -5.18% $10,219 $9,689 26 38% - -$529 -30.0% 5.6d ✓ -
76 SLV 64 0🧊 -5.18% $30,653 $29,065 35 43% - -$1,588 -21.6% 7.3d ✓ -
77 DKNG 4 21 -5.43% $7,019 $6,638 45 38% - -$381 -50.2% 4.1d ✓ -
78 ACN 4 4 -5.58% $4,774 $4,508 30 40% - -$266 -45.0% 9.3d ✓ -
79 GS 44 0🧊 -5.88% $19,535 $18,386 20 35% - -$1,149 -15.7% 9.6d ✓ -
80 SOFI 24 7 -6.40% $14,338 $13,421 41 39% - -$918 -35.6% 2.7d ✓ -
81 REGN 5 1 -6.99% $7,247 $6,740 18 44% - -$507 -50.1% 7.6d ✓ -
82 COST 26 — -7.16% $14,920 $13,852 16 31% - -$1,068 -19.7% 13.0d ✓ -
83 TLT 4 — -8.04% $7,034 $6,468 7 29% - -$566 -27.7% 20.2d ✓ -
84 OXY 35 5🧊 -8.31% $19,747 $18,106 34 41% - -$1,641 -28.6% 8.2d ✓ -
85 SNOW 24 2🧊 -8.60% $16,618 $15,189 41 32% - -$1,429 -43.4% 4.9d ✓ -
86 MDT 21 — -8.64% $12,927 $11,810 15 33% - -$1,117 -12.1% 13.7d ✓ -
87 RIVN 4 6 -8.78% $4,718 $4,303 47 38% - -$414 -51.0% 2.2d ✓ -
88 PG 4 — -8.78% $9,251 $8,438 9 33% - -$812 -24.4% 16.2d ✓ -
89 NFLX 38 0🧊 -10.54% $22,884 $20,472 21 43% - -$2,412 -32.4% 9.5d ✓ -
90 PEP 4 0 -11.45% $9,172 $8,122 12 33% - -$1,050 -23.1% 16.8d ✓ -
91 HD 5 0 -12.08% $9,080 $7,983 19 32% - -$1,097 -19.9% 12.1d ✓ -
92 MCD 7 0 -12.23% $11,076 $9,721 12 33% - -$1,355 -12.9% 16.0d ✓ -
93 XOM 26 — -14.24% $15,064 $12,919 22 32% - -$2,145 -18.5% 11.9d ✓ -
94 ISRG 4 19 -15.34% $11,195 $9,477 22 32% - -$1,717 -35.0% 8.4d ✓ -
95 HOOD 5 17 -21.69% $10,468 $8,197 50 36% - -$2,270 -45.6% 2.2d ✓ -
96 TQQQ 5 14 -22.27% $8,480 $6,592 48 38% - -$1,889 -40.9% 3.1d ✓ -
97 COIN 5 36🔥 -22.91% $9,198 $7,091 52 35% - -$2,107 -53.5% 1.8d ✓ -
98 IBM 29 — -22.95% $17,466 $13,457 28 39% - -$4,008 -17.7% 10.0d ✓ -
99 ORCL 5 29🔥 -23.98% $12,018 $9,136 48 38% - -$2,882 -51.2% 5.2d ✓ -
100 SQQQ 3 1 -25.78% $6,241 $4,632 45 36% - -$1,609 -66.3% 2.8d ✓ -
101 MARA 4 5 -26.36% $4,226 $3,112 61 34% - -$1,114 -58.2% 1.3d ✓ -
102 NIO 4 0 -26.87% $6,396 $4,677 37 30% - -$1,719 -51.1% 2.6d ✓ -
103 SMCI 4 20 -29.03% $1,626 $1,154 54 31% - -$472 -88.9% 1.9d ✓ -
104 VXX 18 2 -30.81% $17,615 $12,188 33 27% - -$5,427 -32.2% 2.9d ✓ -
105 DOGEUSD ₿ — — -38.34% $10,100 $6,228 NO ENTRY - $1,312 -$3,872 -99.3% 18.0h 1 Jan 31, 2026
106 LCID 4 9 -39.08% $13,337 $8,125 60 32% - -$5,212 -38.4% 1.9d ✓ -
107 UVXY 4 2 -43.80% $15,252 $8,571 47 26% - -$6,680 -50.0% 1.6d ✓ -
108 LINKUSD ₿ — — -46.91% $10,098 $5,361 NO ENTRY - $2,618 -$4,737 -99.3% 19.5h 1 Dec 1, 2025
109 SHIBUSD ₿ — — -47.69% $10,098 $5,282 NO ENTRY - $2,493 -$4,816 -99.5% 19.9h 1 Dec 18, 2025
110 PEPEUSD ₿ — — -52.17% $10,096 $4,829 NO ENTRY - $4,168 -$5,267 -99.9% 10.8h 1 Dec 18, 2025
111 CRWD 8 39🔥 -65.53% $21,247 $7,324 41 49% - -$13,923 -24.8% 4.4d ✓ -
112 UNIUSD ₿ — — -79.39% $10,099 $2,081 NO ENTRY - $5,345 -$8,017 -99.3% 16.8h 1 Sep 25, 2025
113 DOTUSD ₿ — — -81.36% $9,482 $1,767 NO ENTRY - $8,684 -$7,715 -99.1% 21.7h 1 Jun 21, 2025
114 AVAXUSD ₿ — — -82.04% $10,323 $1,854 NO ENTRY - $8,581 -$8,469 -99.1% 18.6h 1 Jun 22, 2025

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.