Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

Jun 23, 2024 → Jun 23, 2026 (730d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Marcus Reversal $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$13,302

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 (+$3,302)

+33.02%

2-Year ROI

43.1%

Win Rate

12,433

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume

$119,783,762

9,549 trades

Stock Fees

✓ Commission FREE

Crypto Volume

$12,556,424

2,884 trades

Crypto Fees

$31,391

0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 23, 2024 → Jun 23, 2026 (730 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SOXL 🔥 PRO	72	77	+755.69%	$10,000	$85,569	216	49%	-	+$75,569	-36.3%	1.6d	✓	-
2	MU	69	57	+436.62%	$10,000	$53,662	157	47%	-	+$43,662	-27.8%	3.5d	✓	-
3	PLTR	66	6🧊	+326.49%	$10,000	$42,649	162	46%	-	+$32,649	-28.0%	2.8d	✓	-
4	SLV	69	2🧊	+212.62%	$10,000	$31,262	92	54%	-	+$21,262	-21.6%	7.3d	✓	-
5	NET	54	5🧊	+206.39%	$10,000	$30,639	133	49%	-	+$20,639	-33.4%	4.1d	✓	-
6	CSCO	71	3🧊	+202.86%	$10,000	$30,286	51	63%	-	+$20,286	-9.1%	15.2d	✓	-
7	CRWD	57	3🧊	+194.74%	$10,000	$29,474	122	47%	-	+$19,474	-24.8%	4.4d	✓	-
8	GOOGL	55	—	+156.46%	$10,000	$25,646	81	48%	-	+$15,646	-25.2%	7.9d	✓	-
9	AMD	38	31	+147.28%	$10,000	$24,728	149	45%	-	+$14,728	-43.0%	3.3d	✓	-
10	GLD	66	0🧊	+127.30%	$10,000	$22,730	47	62%	-	+$12,730	-6.1%	15.7d	✓	-
11	GS	53	5🧊	+113.71%	$10,000	$21,371	74	50%	-	+$11,371	-15.7%	9.6d	✓	-
12	ARM	38	17🧊	+105.69%	$10,000	$20,569	168	41%	-	+$10,569	-31.3%	2.7d	✓	-
13	NVDA	35	3🧊	+105.65%	$10,000	$20,565	120	43%	-	+$10,565	-43.7%	3.8d	✓	-
14	C	39	53	+94.48%	$10,000	$19,448	79	48%	-	+$9,448	-29.6%	8.3d	✓	-
15	NFLX	37	0🧊	+92.14%	$10,000	$19,214	69	43%	-	+$9,214	-32.4%	9.5d	✓	-
16	JPM	42	27	+91.64%	$10,000	$19,164	57	51%	-	+$9,164	-20.8%	10.9d	✓	-
17	PANW	34	12🧊	+81.71%	$10,000	$18,171	94	48%	-	+$8,171	-29.0%	7.1d	✓	-
18	AAPL	38	—	+80.63%	$10,000	$18,063	62	50%	-	+$8,063	-21.5%	10.1d	✓	-
19	XLK	38	32	+78.10%	$10,000	$17,810	62	48%	-	+$7,810	-25.5%	11.5d	✓	-
20	SCHW	50	37	+75.64%	$10,000	$17,564	58	53%	-	+$7,564	-10.8%	11.7d	✓	-
21	WMT	39	—	+75.54%	$10,000	$17,554	51	49%	-	+$7,554	-17.6%	14.4d	✓	-
22	SNOW	28	35	+74.93%	$10,000	$17,493	124	42%	-	+$7,493	-43.4%	4.9d	✓	-
23	AMZN	36	3🧊	+64.64%	$10,000	$16,464	82	44%	-	+$6,464	-18.5%	8.3d	✓	-
24	OXY	32	3🧊	+63.55%	$10,000	$16,355	89	46%	-	+$6,355	-28.6%	8.2d	✓	-
25	QQQ	36	—	+60.86%	$10,000	$16,086	43	56%	-	+$6,086	-29.6%	15.7d	✓	-
26	META	31	18	+60.26%	$10,000	$16,026	90	42%	-	+$6,026	-26.1%	6.9d	✓	-
27	SPY	43	—	+55.73%	$10,000	$15,573	37	57%	-	+$5,573	-12.7%	18.7d	✓	-
28	TSLA	28	3🧊	+55.01%	$10,000	$15,501	155	45%	-	+$5,501	-34.1%	2.9d	✓	-
29	JNJ	36	—	+53.67%	$10,000	$15,367	42	57%	-	+$5,367	-13.8%	16.3d	✓	-
30	IBM	33	5🧊	+53.65%	$10,000	$15,365	73	48%	-	+$5,365	-17.7%	10.0d	✓	-
31	SOFI	27	18	+52.78%	$10,000	$15,278	162	43%	-	+$5,278	-35.6%	2.7d	✓	-
32	SLB	33	7🧊	+52.36%	$10,000	$15,236	83	45%	-	+$5,236	-22.2%	8.1d	✓	-
33	VOO	39	—	+51.76%	$10,000	$15,176	37	57%	-	+$5,176	-15.4%	18.9d	✓	-
34	COST	31	0🧊	+51.37%	$10,000	$15,137	53	43%	-	+$5,137	-19.7%	13.0d	✓	-
35	AXP	29	—	+49.52%	$10,000	$14,952	60	45%	-	+$4,952	-27.6%	10.6d	✓	-
36	CVX	35	1🧊	+48.27%	$10,000	$14,827	55	51%	-	+$4,827	-13.5%	13.2d	✓	-
37	VTI	38	—	+48.26%	$10,000	$14,826	34	62%	-	+$4,826	-16.1%	20.8d	✓	-
38	BAC	30	—	+46.69%	$10,000	$14,669	61	46%	-	+$4,669	-21.4%	9.5d	✓	-
39	AVGO	26	5🧊	+45.11%	$10,000	$14,511	129	40%	-	+$4,511	-27.0%	3.7d	✓	-
40	GME	23	6	+43.54%	$10,000	$14,354	126	40%	-	+$4,354	-32.0%	2.9d	✓	-
41	IWM	25	—	+41.86%	$10,000	$14,186	49	49%	-	+$4,186	-23.6%	13.7d	✓	-
42	MSFT	29	1🧊	+41.23%	$10,000	$14,123	56	43%	-	+$4,123	-21.2%	13.3d	✓	-
43	XLF	35	—	+40.29%	$10,000	$14,029	40	55%	-	+$4,029	-11.5%	17.6d	✓	-
44	BLK	30	—	+38.87%	$10,000	$13,887	58	52%	-	+$3,887	-17.2%	12.3d	✓	-
45	INTC	21	56🔥	+38.46%	$10,000	$13,846	155	42%	-	+$3,846	-58.2%	3.6d	✓	-
46	VXX	23	20	+36.95%	$10,000	$13,695	163	41%	-	+$3,695	-32.2%	2.9d	✓	-
47	MS	25	31	+36.81%	$10,000	$13,681	72	46%	-	+$3,681	-29.2%	9.0d	✓	-
48	GILD	25	0🧊	+35.49%	$10,000	$13,549	67	45%	-	+$3,549	-20.9%	10.3d	✓	-
49	WFC	25	53🔥	+32.39%	$10,000	$13,239	70	44%	-	+$3,239	-25.5%	8.9d	✓	-
50	ARKK	23	8	+32.33%	$10,000	$13,233	106	44%	-	+$3,233	-26.4%	5.4d	✓	-
51	BRK-B	26	—	+31.48%	$10,000	$13,148	41	46%	-	+$3,148	-15.7%	16.3d	✓	-
52	KO	30	3🧊	+31.46%	$10,000	$13,146	36	53%	-	+$3,146	-13.1%	18.7d	✓	-
53	UVXY	18	5	+24.54%	$10,000	$12,454	213	40%	-	+$2,454	-50.0%	1.6d	✓	-
54	MA	27	—	+24.06%	$10,000	$12,406	51	45%	-	+$2,406	-11.3%	13.9d	✓	-
55	ABBV	23	0🧊	+22.18%	$10,000	$12,218	62	44%	-	+$2,218	-17.7%	11.9d	✓	-
56	USO	23	3	+21.95%	$10,000	$12,195	95	42%	-	+$2,195	-18.0%	8.8d	✓	-
57	VZ	22	0🧊	+21.79%	$10,000	$12,179	49	43%	-	+$2,179	-14.2%	14.1d	✓	-
58	PM	22	0🧊	+20.86%	$10,000	$12,086	56	43%	-	+$2,086	-21.9%	12.3d	✓	-
59	V	19	—	+19.02%	$10,000	$11,902	48	44%	-	+$1,902	-14.4%	14.2d	✓	-
60	DIA	24	—	+18.37%	$10,000	$11,837	35	54%	-	+$1,837	-20.7%	20.9d	✓	-
61	LLY	18	6	+18.36%	$10,000	$11,836	92	39%	-	+$1,836	-36.7%	6.7d	✓	-
62	XOM	20	0	+16.48%	$10,000	$11,648	61	44%	-	+$1,648	-18.5%	11.9d	✓	-
63	VRTX	18	—	+15.08%	$10,000	$11,508	65	43%	-	+$1,508	-25.6%	10.7d	✓	-
64	MDT	18	—	+13.65%	$10,000	$11,365	49	45%	-	+$1,365	-12.1%	13.7d	✓	-
65	DIS	16	0	+12.07%	$10,000	$11,207	55	42%	-	+$1,207	-24.9%	11.6d	✓	-
66	COP	16	1	+11.09%	$10,000	$11,109	74	42%	-	+$1,109	-20.6%	9.4d	✓	-
67	LCID	15	9	+11.07%	$10,000	$11,107	198	38%	-	+$1,107	-38.4%	1.9d	✓	-
68	ORCL	15	5	+7.92%	$10,000	$10,792	130	37%	-	+$792	-51.2%	5.2d	✓	-
69	TQQQ	12	27	+3.74%	$10,000	$10,374	149	42%	-	+$374	-40.9%	3.1d	✓	-
70	RBLX	17	17	+3.27%	$10,000	$10,327	135	44%	-	+$327	-46.8%	3.9d	✓	-
71	MCD	15	—	+1.91%	$10,000	$10,191	43	51%	-	+$191	-12.9%	16.0d	✓	-
72	SOLUSD ₿	—	—	-1.07%	🔄 $10,092	$11,098	27	44%	$1,398	+$1,006	-99.5%	21.3h	1	Feb 6, 2026
73	XLE	5	0	-3.62%	$10,000	$9,638	58	40%	-	-$362	-24.7%	12.5d	✓	-
74	AMGN	4	—	-8.02%	$10,000	$9,198	55	38%	-	-$802	-28.3%	11.3d	✓	-
75	ISRG	4	1	-8.87%	$10,000	$9,113	71	35%	-	-$887	-35.0%	8.4d	✓	-
76	PG	4	—	-9.32%	$10,000	$9,068	43	35%	-	-$932	-24.4%	16.2d	✓	-
77	SPXU	4	24🔥	-10.06%	$10,000	$8,994	75	43%	-	-$1,006	-30.0%	5.6d	✓	-
78	BMY	5	0	-11.21%	$10,000	$8,879	75	40%	-	-$1,121	-28.4%	7.9d	✓	-
79	MRNA	5	14	-12.77%	$10,000	$8,723	187	41%	-	-$1,277	-73.8%	2.3d	✓	-
80	PEP	4	—	-13.75%	$10,000	$8,625	39	38%	-	-$1,375	-23.1%	16.8d	✓	-
81	PFE	5	—	-15.29%	$10,000	$8,472	52	42%	-	-$1,529	-23.5%	10.8d	✓	-
82	HD	5	30🔥	-15.87%	$10,000	$8,413	61	34%	-	-$1,587	-19.9%	12.1d	✓	-
83	RIOT	4	26🔥	-17.25%	$10,000	$8,275	230	42%	-	-$1,725	-51.3%	1.3d	✓	-
84	TMO	4	—	-17.83%	$10,000	$8,217	60	33%	-	-$1,783	-28.6%	11.0d	✓	-
85	PYPL	6	1	-18.35%	$10,000	$8,165	77	42%	-	-$1,835	-35.9%	7.8d	✓	-
86	HOOD	5	5	-22.56%	$10,000	$7,744	173	39%	-	-$2,256	-45.6%	2.2d	✓	-
87	MRK	4	1	-22.85%	$10,000	$7,715	68	34%	-	-$2,285	-45.0%	9.8d	✓	-
88	TLT	4	—	-28.73%	$10,000	$7,127	33	36%	-	-$2,873	-27.7%	20.2d	✓	-
89	DKNG	4	3	-31.56%	$10,000	$6,844	130	35%	-	-$3,156	-50.2%	4.1d	✓	-
90	CRM	5	3	-32.25%	$10,000	$6,775	92	36%	-	-$3,225	-48.1%	7.3d	✓	-
91	BIIB	4	—	-36.07%	$10,000	$6,393	74	36%	-	-$3,607	-46.7%	7.5d	✓	-
92	NIO	4	3	-37.58%	$10,000	$6,242	167	38%	-	-$3,758	-51.1%	2.6d	✓	-
93	UNH	6	—	-37.60%	$10,000	$6,240	81	46%	-	-$3,760	-54.0%	7.3d	✓	-
94	COIN	5	6	-38.13%	$10,000	$6,187	201	36%	-	-$3,813	-53.5%	1.8d	✓	-
95	RIVN	4	23	-40.21%	$10,000	$5,979	184	39%	-	-$4,021	-51.0%	2.2d	✓	-
96	REGN	5	0	-41.79%	$10,000	$5,821	86	35%	-	-$4,179	-50.1%	7.6d	✓	-
97	DOGEUSD ₿	—	—	-44.09%	🔄 $10,100	$6,228	35	29%	$1,312	-$3,872	-99.3%	18.0h	1	Jan 31, 2026
98	AMC	4	73🔥	-45.20%	$10,000	$5,480	162	38%	-	-$4,520	-59.9%	2.4d	✓	-
99	CMCSA	5	0	-47.27%	$10,000	$5,273	59	34%	-	-$4,727	-36.1%	11.9d	✓	-
100	ADBE	4	3	-48.10%	$10,000	$5,190	80	33%	-	-$4,810	-42.0%	8.2d	✓	-
101	LINKUSD ₿	—	—	-50.57%	🔄 $10,097	$5,361	69	33%	$2,618	-$4,736	-99.3%	19.5h	1	Dec 1, 2025
102	SHIBUSD ₿	—	—	-52.15%	🔄 $10,099	$5,282	65	31%	$2,493	-$4,816	-99.5%	19.9h	1	Dec 18, 2025
103	MARA	4	9	-53.27%	$10,000	$4,673	226	38%	-	-$5,327	-58.2%	1.3d	✓	-
104	PEPEUSD ₿	—	—	-58.97%	🔄 $10,097	$4,829	95	34%	$4,168	-$5,268	-99.9%	10.8h	1	Dec 18, 2025
105	ACN	3	3	-63.76%	$10,000	$3,624	77	29%	-	-$6,376	-45.0%	9.3d	✓	-
106	SQQQ	3	6	-65.63%	$10,000	$3,437	170	34%	-	-$6,563	-66.3%	2.8d	✓	-
107	BTCUSD ₿	4	10	-69.54%	$10,000	$3,046	261	39%	$12,916	-$6,954	-78.6%	2.4d	✓	-
108	UNIUSD ₿	—	—	-81.71%	🔄 $10,098	$2,081	187	34%	$5,345	-$8,017	-99.3%	16.8h	1	Sep 25, 2025
109	SMCI	4	7	-82.67%	$10,000	$1,733	191	33%	-	-$8,267	-88.9%	1.9d	✓	-
110	AVAXUSD ₿	—	—	-83.06%	🔄 $10,099	$1,854	231	36%	$8,581	-$8,245	-99.1%	18.6h	1	Jun 22, 2025
111	DOTUSD ₿	—	—	-84.30%	🔄 $10,099	$1,767	236	36%	$8,684	-$8,332	-99.1%	21.7h	1	Jun 21, 2025
112	LTCUSD ₿	2	9	-96.00%	$10,000	$400	568	40%	$10,423	-$9,600	-95.7%	1.1d	✓	-
113	XRPUSD ₿	3	10	-97.41%	$10,000	$259	621	40%	$12,834	-$9,741	-96.4%	1.1d	✓	-
114	ETHUSD ₿	2	10	-97.46%	$10,000	$254	489	36%	$9,951	-$9,746	-98.0%	1.4d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.

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