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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the year to date across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$12,533
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $12,505 (+$28)
+0.22%
Year to Date ROI
41.6%
Win Rate
2,547
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+3.3%
1 Month
-0.6%
3 Months
-1.0%
6 Months
+0.2%
YTD
+13.9%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Year to Date)

Stock Volume
$26,352,937
1,875 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$2,762,873
672 trades
Crypto Fees
$6,907
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 INTC 17 77🔥 +108.73% $5,757 $12,018 32 59% - +$6,260 -58.2% 3.6d -
2 MRNA 5 17 +99.13% $4,479 $8,919 35 60% - +$4,440 -73.8% 2.3d -
3 SLV 73 20🧊 +76.91% $19,501 $34,498 29 59% - +$14,998 -21.6% 7.3d -
4 NET 54 77🔥 +65.90% $18,165 $30,135 27 59% - +$11,970 -33.4% 4.1d -
5 OXY 36 5🧊 +63.55% $10,312 $16,866 22 64% - +$6,553 -28.6% 8.2d -
6 AMD 28 68🔥 +45.46% $13,614 $19,803 30 60% - +$6,189 -43.0% 3.3d -
7 GOOGL 57 60 +39.99% $19,156 $26,816 15 67% - +$7,660 -25.2% 7.9d -
8 NIO 4 54🔥 +38.37% $5,294 $7,325 28 50% - +$2,031 -51.1% 2.6d -
9 CVX 38 1🧊 +36.29% $11,466 $15,627 14 64% - +$4,161 -13.5% 13.2d -
10 UVXY 21 7 +33.72% $10,354 $13,846 38 47% - +$3,491 -50.0% 1.6d -
11 SLB 31 29 +32.22% $11,580 $15,312 18 56% - +$3,731 -22.2% 8.1d -
12 ARM 30 34 +31.32% $13,976 $18,353 31 48% - +$4,377 -31.3% 2.7d -
13 MU 68 87 +27.81% $35,635 $45,545 37 51% - +$9,910 -27.8% 3.5d -
14 COP 20 2 +25.98% $9,158 $11,537 20 50% - +$2,379 -20.6% 9.4d -
15 XOM 26 1🧊 +25.17% $10,712 $13,408 13 62% - +$2,696 -18.5% 11.9d -
16 CSCO 68 30🧊 +24.78% $19,050 $23,771 11 64% - +$4,721 -9.1% 15.2d -
17 GME 27 29 +24.50% $12,500 $15,562 17 53% - +$3,062 -32.0% 2.9d -
18 AMZN 46 60 +23.11% $15,881 $19,551 19 53% - +$3,670 -18.5% 8.3d -
19 XLK 30 53🔥 +21.23% $13,121 $15,906 10 70% - +$2,785 -25.5% 11.5d -
20 NVDA 34 56🔥 +19.09% $16,593 $19,761 16 50% - +$3,168 -43.7% 3.8d -
21 AAPL 36 59🔥 +17.49% $14,379 $16,894 11 55% - +$2,515 -21.5% 10.1d -
22 GLD 68 +17.36% $20,586 $24,159 12 58% - +$3,574 -6.1% 15.7d -
23 USO 29 12 +17.22% $10,864 $12,735 29 52% - +$1,871 -18.0% 8.8d -
24 ARKK 20 51🔥 +16.51% $10,438 $12,161 19 47% - +$1,723 -26.4% 5.4d -
25 QQQ 33 53 +15.16% $12,975 $14,942 8 63% - +$1,967 -29.6% 15.7d -
26 VXX 24 3🧊 +15.10% $12,604 $14,507 29 45% - +$1,903 -32.2% 2.9d -
27 PLTR 69 6🧊 +14.89% $45,263 $52,002 27 44% - +$6,740 -28.0% 2.8d -
28 XLE 12 2 +13.17% $8,929 $10,105 15 47% - +$1,176 -24.7% 12.5d -
29 SCHW 44 15🧊 +10.48% $14,790 $16,340 9 56% - +$1,550 -10.8% 11.7d -
30 COST 33 28 +10.44% $14,299 $15,792 9 56% - +$1,493 -19.7% 13.0d -
31 SOLUSD +9.96% $10,092 $11,098 27 44% $1,398 +$1,005 -99.5% 21.3h 1 Feb 6, 2026
32 JNJ 34 +9.84% $13,449 $14,772 7 57% - +$1,323 -13.8% 16.3d -
33 C 35 32 +8.91% $16,200 $17,643 17 41% - +$1,443 -29.6% 8.3d -
34 PEP 4 +8.54% $8,747 $9,494 8 50% - +$747 -23.1% 16.8d -
35 SOXL 68 73 +8.19% $48,674 $52,660 44 43% - +$3,986 -36.3% 1.6d -
36 VZ 20 0 +7.89% $11,052 $11,924 10 40% - +$872 -14.2% 14.1d -
37 SPXU 3 1 +7.75% $8,117 $8,746 19 47% - +$629 -30.0% 5.6d -
38 UNH 6 61🔥 +6.07% $5,707 $6,053 16 50% - +$346 -54.0% 7.3d -
39 PFE 5 +5.89% $8,596 $9,102 7 57% - +$506 -23.5% 10.8d -
40 SPY 37 +5.80% $13,810 $14,611 6 50% - +$801 -12.7% 18.7d -
41 VTI 37 +5.78% $13,744 $14,539 6 50% - +$794 -16.1% 20.8d -
42 VOO 34 +5.49% $13,505 $14,246 6 50% - +$741 -15.4% 18.9d -
43 BAC 24 +3.46% $13,185 $13,641 8 50% - +$456 -21.4% 9.5d -
44 WMT 44 29 +3.30% $18,113 $18,710 11 45% - +$598 -17.6% 14.4d -
45 MRK 4 0 +3.27% $7,545 $7,792 10 40% - +$247 -45.0% 9.8d -
46 IWM 25 +2.84% $13,254 $13,631 9 44% - +$376 -23.6% 13.7d -
47 AMC 3 9 +2.27% $4,331 $4,429 34 38% - +$98 -59.9% 2.4d -
48 TSLA 27 57🔥 +1.65% $14,977 $15,224 20 40% - +$247 -34.1% 2.9d -
49 GS 49 +1.55% $20,642 $20,962 13 38% - +$320 -15.7% 9.6d -
50 GILD 23 0🧊 +1.50% $12,735 $12,926 14 43% - +$191 -20.9% 10.3d -
51 KO 30 +1.50% $13,052 $13,248 7 43% - +$196 -13.1% 18.7d -
52 AVGO 29 69🔥 +1.45% $15,426 $15,650 23 39% - +$224 -27.0% 3.7d -
53 BIIB 4 33🔥 +1.36% $6,396 $6,483 13 46% - +$87 -46.7% 7.5d -
54 IBM 35 0🧊 +1.09% $16,236 $16,413 14 43% - +$177 -17.7% 10.0d -
55 BLK 28 30 +1.08% $13,624 $13,771 13 46% - +$147 -17.2% 12.3d -
56 RIOT 4 37🔥 +0.31% $6,359 $6,379 41 39% - +$20 -51.3% 1.3d -
57 BRK-B 23 -0.31% $12,508 $12,470 8 38% - -$39 -15.7% 16.3d -
58 PG 5 0 -0.74% $9,175 $9,107 9 33% - -$68 -24.4% 16.2d -
59 CRWD 51 69 -0.99% $25,725 $25,470 21 43% - -$255 -24.8% 4.4d -
60 BMY 4 0 -1.16% $8,914 $8,811 14 36% - -$103 -28.4% 7.9d -
61 MS 18 -1.50% $12,038 $11,857 13 38% - -$181 -29.2% 9.0d -
62 AXP 29 37 -2.09% $15,242 $14,923 10 40% - -$319 -27.6% 10.6d -
63 META 29 12 -2.17% $15,815 $15,471 18 39% - -$343 -26.1% 6.9d -
64 JPM 37 -2.22% $18,801 $18,383 10 30% - -$417 -20.8% 10.9d -
65 MCD 15 0 -2.33% $10,769 $10,518 8 38% - -$251 -12.9% 16.0d -
66 DIA 19 -2.34% $11,531 $11,261 6 50% - -$270 -20.7% 20.9d -
67 PANW 28 70🔥 -3.94% $15,124 $14,528 21 43% - -$596 -29.0% 7.1d -
68 AMGN 4 0 -4.11% $9,405 $9,018 10 40% - -$387 -28.3% 11.3d -
69 V 22 29 -4.81% $12,886 $12,266 9 22% - -$620 -14.4% 14.2d -
70 XLF 31 -5.17% $14,418 $13,673 8 38% - -$745 -11.5% 17.6d -
71 ABBV 22 0🧊 -5.50% $12,824 $12,118 15 40% - -$705 -17.7% 11.9d -
72 DIS 15 30 -5.73% $12,459 $11,745 11 45% - -$714 -24.9% 11.6d -
73 TLT 4 -6.40% $7,615 $7,128 5 40% - -$487 -27.7% 20.2d -
74 WFC 19 21 -7.08% $12,628 $11,734 12 42% - -$894 -25.5% 8.9d -
75 MSFT 31 52🔥 -8.05% $16,464 $15,138 16 31% - -$1,325 -21.2% 13.3d -
76 RIVN 4 33🔥 -9.19% $6,309 $5,729 33 36% - -$580 -51.0% 2.2d -
77 DKNG 4 14 -9.22% $8,232 $7,473 30 40% - -$759 -50.2% 4.1d -
78 CRM 6 19 -9.50% $9,256 $8,377 20 40% - -$879 -48.1% 7.3d -
79 NFLX 40 2🧊 -10.22% $24,507 $22,003 16 38% - -$2,505 -32.4% 9.5d -
80 TQQQ 6 53🔥 -12.97% $11,210 $9,756 28 39% - -$1,454 -40.9% 3.1d -
81 SQQQ 3 6 -13.17% $5,319 $4,619 30 37% - -$701 -66.3% 2.8d -
82 BTCUSD 5 72🔥 -13.39% $4,364 $3,779 43 37% $12,692 -$584 -78.6% 2.4d -
83 MDT 18 0 -13.77% $13,175 $11,361 9 22% - -$1,814 -12.1% 13.7d -
84 VRTX 15 -13.89% $12,873 $11,085 12 25% - -$1,788 -25.6% 10.7d -
85 MA 26 20 -14.62% $14,712 $12,561 13 23% - -$2,151 -11.3% 13.9d -
86 CMCSA 5 1 -15.29% $7,060 $5,980 15 33% - -$1,079 -36.1% 11.9d -
87 TMO 4 -15.64% $10,173 $8,582 11 27% - -$1,591 -28.6% 11.0d -
88 HD 5 1 -16.22% $10,389 $8,704 12 25% - -$1,685 -19.9% 12.1d -
89 COIN 5 9 -16.63% $9,030 $7,528 38 34% - -$1,502 -53.5% 1.8d -
90 LLY 17 3 -16.86% $13,836 $11,503 17 24% - -$2,333 -36.7% 6.7d -
91 PM 20 -17.77% $14,481 $11,908 10 20% - -$2,573 -21.9% 12.3d -
92 REGN 5 -18.98% $8,277 $6,706 15 27% - -$1,571 -50.1% 7.6d -
93 SNOW 23 7 -20.59% $16,871 $13,397 30 30% - -$3,474 -43.4% 4.9d -
94 PYPL 6 11 -20.86% $11,556 $9,146 16 38% - -$2,411 -35.9% 7.8d -
95 ISRG 12 0 -21.34% $13,624 $10,716 12 17% - -$2,907 -35.0% 8.4d -
96 ADBE 4 34🔥 -21.84% $7,735 $6,046 20 30% - -$1,689 -42.0% 8.2d -
97 SMCI 4 14 -23.66% $2,347 $1,791 34 32% - -$555 -88.9% 1.9d -
98 ACN 3 0 -26.60% $6,204 $4,554 18 22% - -$1,650 -45.0% 9.3d -
99 ORCL 16 5 -27.90% $15,665 $11,294 31 26% - -$4,370 -51.2% 5.2d -
100 SOFI 25 28 -29.55% $19,930 $14,041 27 30% - -$5,889 -35.6% 2.7d -
101 LCID 16 9 -34.21% $17,227 $11,333 37 27% - -$5,893 -38.4% 1.9d -
102 RBLX 7 9 -35.37% $15,284 $9,878 37 35% - -$5,406 -46.8% 3.9d -
103 HOOD 5 6 -36.84% $13,646 $8,619 30 27% - -$5,027 -45.6% 2.2d -
104 AVAXUSD -38.12% $2,996 $1,854 48 31% $8,581 -$1,142 -99.1% 18.6h 1 Jun 22, 2025
105 DOGEUSD -38.34% $10,100 $6,228 35 29% $1,312 -$3,872 -99.3% 18.0h 1 Jan 31, 2026
106 ETHUSD 2 33🔥 -38.57% $544 $334 77 34% $9,922 -$210 -98.0% 1.4d -
107 MARA 4 7 -40.61% $6,431 $3,820 44 27% - -$2,612 -58.2% 1.3d -
108 LINKUSD -41.30% $9,133 $5,361 49 31% $2,618 -$3,772 -99.3% 19.5h 1 Dec 1, 2025
109 LTCUSD 3 27🔥 -41.51% $852 $498 50 32% $10,388 -$354 -95.7% 1.1d -
110 SHIBUSD -44.70% $9,552 $5,282 59 31% $2,493 -$4,270 -99.5% 19.9h 1 Dec 18, 2025
111 PEPEUSD -52.27% $10,117 $4,829 88 33% $4,168 -$5,288 -99.9% 10.8h 1 Dec 18, 2025
112 UNIUSD -53.86% $4,511 $2,081 63 27% $5,345 -$2,430 -99.3% 16.8h 1 Sep 25, 2025
113 XRPUSD 3 34🔥 -54.97% $728 $328 70 30% $12,800 -$400 -96.4% 1.1d -
114 DOTUSD -55.54% $3,975 $1,767 63 29% $8,684 -$2,208 -99.1% 21.7h 1 Jun 21, 2025

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.