Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Marcus Reversal $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$14,605

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $10,000 (+$4,605)

+46.05%

2-Year ROI

43.4%

Win Rate

9,784

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	SOXL	69	12🧊	+681.01%	$10,000	$78,101	223	49%	-	+$68,101	-36.3%	1.6d	✓	-
2	PLTR	69	32🧊	+480.97%	$10,000	$58,097	164	47%	-	+$48,097	-28.0%	2.8d	✓	-
3	MU	69	63	+457.06%	$10,000	$55,706	167	49%	-	+$45,706	-27.8%	3.5d	✓	-
4	NET	67	34🧊	+316.63%	$10,000	$41,663	145	51%	-	+$31,663	-33.4%	4.1d	✓	-
5	AMD	45	55	+193.72%	$10,000	$29,372	155	47%	-	+$19,372	-43.0%	3.3d	✓	-
6	SLV	64	0🧊	+190.65%	$10,000	$29,065	100	53%	-	+$19,065	-21.6%	7.3d	✓	-
7	CSCO	68	—	+177.86%	$10,000	$27,786	53	60%	-	+$17,786	-9.1%	15.2d	✓	-
8	GOOGL	59	29🧊	+170.24%	$10,000	$27,024	84	50%	-	+$17,024	-25.2%	7.9d	✓	-
9	GLD	62	—	+136.17%	$10,000	$23,617	48	63%	-	+$13,617	-6.1%	15.7d	✓	-
10	NFLX	38	0🧊	+104.72%	$10,000	$20,472	71	45%	-	+$10,472	-32.4%	9.5d	✓	-
11	ARM	37	35	+100.22%	$10,000	$20,022	175	42%	-	+$10,022	-31.3%	2.7d	✓	-
12	JPM	44	0🧊	+98.67%	$10,000	$19,867	56	48%	-	+$9,867	-20.8%	10.9d	✓	-
13	META	37	65🔥	+97.48%	$10,000	$19,748	90	42%	-	+$9,748	-26.1%	6.9d	✓	-
14	AAPL	40	—	+88.29%	$10,000	$18,829	61	51%	-	+$8,829	-21.5%	10.1d	✓	-
15	NVDA	33	18	+86.37%	$10,000	$18,637	116	44%	-	+$8,637	-43.7%	3.8d	✓	-
16	MSFT	38	—	+84.69%	$10,000	$18,469	59	46%	-	+$8,469	-21.2%	13.3d	✓	-
17	GS	44	0🧊	+83.86%	$10,000	$18,386	75	45%	-	+$8,386	-15.7%	9.6d	✓	-
18	OXY	35	5🧊	+81.06%	$10,000	$18,106	97	47%	-	+$8,106	-28.6%	8.2d	✓	-
19	SCHW	52	0🧊	+78.89%	$10,000	$17,889	57	53%	-	+$7,889	-10.8%	11.7d	✓	-
20	GILD	36	34	+70.22%	$10,000	$17,022	69	46%	-	+$7,022	-20.9%	10.3d	✓	-
21	C	33	0🧊	+70.13%	$10,000	$17,013	78	45%	-	+$7,013	-29.6%	8.3d	✓	-
22	WMT	37	—	+69.39%	$10,000	$16,939	55	45%	-	+$6,939	-17.6%	14.4d	✓	-
23	CVX	43	0🧊	+68.87%	$10,000	$16,887	59	51%	-	+$6,887	-13.5%	13.2d	✓	-
24	XLK	35	—	+67.68%	$10,000	$16,768	59	49%	-	+$6,768	-25.5%	11.5d	✓	-
25	JNJ	41	0🧊	+67.63%	$10,000	$16,763	47	53%	-	+$6,763	-13.8%	16.3d	✓	-
26	USO	33	45	+57.01%	$10,000	$15,701	102	47%	-	+$5,701	-18.0%	8.8d	✓	-
27	GME	25	59🔥	+56.99%	$10,000	$15,699	114	42%	-	+$5,699	-32.0%	2.9d	✓	-
28	TSLA	28	—	+55.07%	$10,000	$15,507	145	43%	-	+$5,507	-34.1%	2.9d	✓	-
29	VTI	40	—	+54.88%	$10,000	$15,488	33	61%	-	+$5,488	-16.1%	20.8d	✓	-
30	PANW	30	6🧊	+54.22%	$10,000	$15,422	101	45%	-	+$5,422	-29.0%	7.1d	✓	-
31	QQQ	31	—	+53.51%	$10,000	$15,351	41	54%	-	+$5,351	-29.6%	15.7d	✓	-
32	AMZN	31	—	+51.91%	$10,000	$15,191	84	42%	-	+$5,191	-18.5%	8.3d	✓	-
33	SNOW	24	2🧊	+51.89%	$10,000	$15,189	126	41%	-	+$5,189	-43.4%	4.9d	✓	-
34	SPY	38	—	+50.34%	$10,000	$15,035	35	54%	-	+$5,035	-12.7%	18.7d	✓	-
35	XLF	40	—	+47.21%	$10,000	$14,721	39	54%	-	+$4,721	-11.5%	17.6d	✓	-
36	VOO	35	—	+46.57%	$10,000	$14,657	35	54%	-	+$4,657	-15.4%	18.9d	✓	-
37	ARKK	27	—	+45.77%	$10,000	$14,577	104	44%	-	+$4,577	-26.4%	5.4d	✓	-
38	ABBV	32	—	+45.59%	$10,000	$14,559	67	45%	-	+$4,559	-17.7%	11.9d	✓	-
39	SLB	29	5🧊	+45.25%	$10,000	$14,525	86	44%	-	+$4,525	-22.2%	8.1d	✓	-
40	BLK	31	0🧊	+42.80%	$10,000	$14,280	62	47%	-	+$4,280	-17.2%	12.3d	✓	-
41	BAC	28	1🧊	+42.53%	$10,000	$14,253	57	46%	-	+$4,253	-21.4%	9.5d	✓	-
42	PM	27	17	+39.38%	$10,000	$13,938	59	42%	-	+$3,938	-21.9%	12.3d	✓	-
43	KO	31	—	+39.26%	$10,000	$13,926	39	49%	-	+$3,926	-13.1%	18.7d	✓	-
44	MA	31	—	+39.08%	$10,000	$13,908	49	47%	-	+$3,908	-11.3%	13.9d	✓	-
45	COST	26	—	+38.52%	$10,000	$13,852	52	38%	-	+$3,852	-19.7%	13.0d	✓	-
46	V	27	—	+36.48%	$10,000	$13,648	47	47%	-	+$3,648	-14.4%	14.2d	✓	-
47	IWM	27	—	+35.30%	$10,000	$13,530	46	43%	-	+$3,530	-23.6%	13.7d	✓	-
48	WFC	26	0🧊	+34.79%	$10,000	$13,479	65	45%	-	+$3,479	-25.5%	8.9d	✓	-
49	IBM	29	—	+34.57%	$10,000	$13,457	82	45%	-	+$3,457	-17.7%	10.0d	✓	-
50	SOFI	24	7	+34.21%	$10,000	$13,421	166	41%	-	+$3,421	-35.6%	2.7d	✓	-
51	BRK-B	27	—	+33.26%	$10,000	$13,326	39	46%	-	+$3,326	-15.7%	16.3d	✓	-
52	XOM	26	—	+29.19%	$10,000	$12,919	63	44%	-	+$2,919	-18.5%	11.9d	✓	-
53	VRTX	22	—	+29.00%	$10,000	$12,900	69	43%	-	+$2,900	-25.6%	10.7d	✓	-
54	AXP	23	1🧊	+28.34%	$10,000	$12,834	57	39%	-	+$2,834	-27.6%	10.6d	✓	-
55	COP	24	1🧊	+26.99%	$10,000	$12,699	77	43%	-	+$2,699	-20.6%	9.4d	✓	-
56	VZ	25	0🧊	+26.77%	$10,000	$12,677	53	40%	-	+$2,677	-14.2%	14.1d	✓	-
57	RBLX	22	64🔥	+23.37%	$10,000	$12,337	147	42%	-	+$2,337	-46.8%	3.9d	✓	-
58	LLY	20	0	+23.18%	$10,000	$12,318	95	40%	-	+$2,318	-36.7%	6.7d	✓	-
59	VXX	18	2	+21.88%	$10,000	$12,188	154	40%	-	+$2,188	-32.2%	2.9d	✓	-
60	DIA	25	—	+21.56%	$10,000	$12,156	33	55%	-	+$2,156	-20.7%	20.9d	✓	-
61	MS	20	—	+20.07%	$10,000	$12,007	75	43%	-	+$2,007	-29.2%	9.0d	✓	-
62	MDT	21	—	+18.10%	$10,000	$11,810	52	44%	-	+$1,810	-12.1%	13.7d	✓	-
63	AVGO	19	1	+17.71%	$10,000	$11,771	128	38%	-	+$1,771	-27.0%	3.7d	✓	-
64	INTC	14	34	+16.91%	$10,000	$11,691	163	42%	-	+$1,691	-58.2%	3.6d	✓	-
65	XLE	18	—	+14.32%	$10,000	$11,432	56	43%	-	+$1,432	-24.7%	12.5d	✓	-
66	AMGN	16	0	+12.81%	$10,000	$11,281	59	42%	-	+$1,281	-28.3%	11.3d	✓	-
67	MRNA	13	44🔥	+11.82%	$10,000	$11,182	196	43%	-	+$1,182	-73.8%	2.3d	✓	-
68	TMO	15	—	+10.71%	$10,000	$11,071	63	38%	-	+$1,071	-28.6%	11.0d	✓	-
69	DIS	13	1	+7.55%	$10,000	$10,755	57	42%	-	+$755	-24.9%	11.6d	✓	-
70	PYPL	15	2	+7.17%	$10,000	$10,717	80	44%	-	+$717	-35.9%	7.8d	✓	-
71	BMY	14	—	+4.29%	$10,000	$10,429	73	42%	-	+$429	-28.4%	7.9d	✓	-
72	MCD	7	0	-2.79%	$10,000	$9,721	43	44%	-	-$279	-12.9%	16.0d	✓	-
73	SPXU	4	0	-3.11%	$10,000	$9,689	78	45%	-	-$311	-30.0%	5.6d	✓	-
74	ISRG	4	19	-5.23%	$10,000	$9,477	77	35%	-	-$523	-35.0%	8.4d	✓	-
75	PFE	5	—	-7.30%	$10,000	$9,270	52	40%	-	-$730	-23.5%	10.8d	✓	-
76	ORCL	5	29🔥	-8.64%	$10,000	$9,136	144	35%	-	-$864	-51.2%	5.2d	✓	-
77	UVXY	4	2	-14.29%	$10,000	$8,571	206	41%	-	-$1,429	-50.0%	1.6d	✓	-
78	PG	4	—	-15.62%	$10,000	$8,438	43	35%	-	-$1,562	-24.4%	16.2d	✓	-
79	MRK	4	—	-16.13%	$10,000	$8,387	69	38%	-	-$1,613	-45.0%	9.8d	✓	-
80	HOOD	5	17	-18.03%	$10,000	$8,197	184	40%	-	-$1,803	-45.6%	2.2d	✓	-
81	LCID	4	9	-18.75%	$10,000	$8,125	205	36%	-	-$1,875	-38.4%	1.9d	✓	-
82	PEP	4	0	-18.78%	$10,000	$8,122	42	36%	-	-$1,878	-23.1%	16.8d	✓	-
83	HD	5	0	-20.17%	$10,000	$7,983	62	32%	-	-$2,017	-19.9%	12.1d	✓	-
84	CRM	5	3	-22.05%	$10,000	$7,795	100	37%	-	-$2,205	-48.1%	7.3d	✓	-
85	CRWD	8	39🔥	-26.76%	$10,000	$7,324	128	45%	-	-$2,676	-24.8%	4.4d	✓	-
86	BIIB	5	—	-29.06%	$10,000	$7,094	79	38%	-	-$2,906	-46.7%	7.5d	✓	-
87	COIN	5	36🔥	-29.09%	$10,000	$7,091	200	38%	-	-$2,909	-53.5%	1.8d	✓	-
88	REGN	5	1	-32.60%	$10,000	$6,740	89	36%	-	-$3,260	-50.1%	7.6d	✓	-
89	ADBE	4	2	-32.89%	$10,000	$6,711	90	36%	-	-$3,289	-42.0%	8.2d	✓	-
90	CMCSA	5	1	-32.98%	$10,000	$6,702	63	35%	-	-$3,298	-36.1%	11.9d	✓	-
91	DKNG	4	21	-33.62%	$10,000	$6,638	140	35%	-	-$3,362	-50.2%	4.1d	✓	-
92	TQQQ	5	14	-34.08%	$10,000	$6,592	152	40%	-	-$3,408	-40.9%	3.1d	✓	-
93	TLT	4	—	-35.32%	$10,000	$6,468	33	30%	-	-$3,532	-27.7%	20.2d	✓	-
94	UNH	5	1	-39.01%	$10,000	$6,099	84	43%	-	-$3,901	-54.0%	7.3d	✓	-
95	RIOT	5	37🔥	-40.30%	$10,000	$5,970	238	41%	-	-$4,030	-51.3%	1.3d	✓	-
96	AMC	4	5	-50.88%	$10,000	$4,912	170	38%	-	-$5,088	-59.9%	2.4d	✓	-
97	NIO	4	0	-53.23%	$10,000	$4,677	162	35%	-	-$5,323	-51.1%	2.6d	✓	-
98	SQQQ	3	1	-53.68%	$10,000	$4,632	169	36%	-	-$5,368	-66.3%	2.8d	✓	-
99	ACN	4	4	-54.92%	$10,000	$4,508	89	33%	-	-$5,492	-45.0%	9.3d	✓	-
100	RIVN	4	6	-56.97%	$10,000	$4,303	181	38%	-	-$5,697	-51.0%	2.2d	✓	-
101	MARA	4	5	-68.88%	$10,000	$3,112	230	36%	-	-$6,888	-58.2%	1.3d	✓	-
102	SMCI	4	20	-88.46%	$10,000	$1,154	194	31%	-	-$8,846	-88.9%	1.9d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.

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