Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

Jan 1, 2026 → Sep 25, 2026 (266d)

📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y

🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$14,323

Avg Value (per symbol)

Started at: $13,253 (+$1,071)

+8.08%

Year to Date ROI

42.7%

Win Rate

3,966

Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

                        RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))                    

                            RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)                        

                            Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14                        

                            Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14

                    📁 calculateRSI() 
                    @ lines 404-448                

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size

2 Upper wick ≤ body size

3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE                    

→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

                        • TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        RSI_PERIOD:
                        14
                    

                        RSI_OVERSOLD:
                        30
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        -10%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
                        30
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 → Sep 25, 2026 (266 days)

📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns

📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.

75+ Elite 60+ Good 40+ Fair <40 Weak

⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.

75+ Hot 60+ Active 40+ Moderate <40 Quiet

Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.

⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →

Rank	Symbol	Score	Mom	Return	YTD Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	AMD	45	55	+160.21%	$11,288	$29,372	68	56%	-	+$18,084	-43.0%	3.3d	✓	-
2	MRNA	13	44🔥	+149.66%	$4,479	$11,182	77	51%	-	+$6,703	-73.8%	2.3d	✓	-
3	NET	67	34🧊	+129.37%	$18,164	$41,663	62	55%	-	+$23,499	-33.4%	4.1d	✓	-
4	INTC	14	34	+103.06%	$5,757	$11,691	72	47%	-	+$5,934	-58.2%	3.6d	✓	-
5	SOXL	69	12🧊	+73.16%	$45,103	$78,101	98	47%	-	+$32,998	-36.3%	1.6d	✓	-
6	OXY	35	5🧊	+61.50%	$11,211	$18,106	45	53%	-	+$6,895	-28.6%	8.2d	✓	-
7	ARM	37	35	+59.76%	$12,533	$20,022	75	45%	-	+$7,489	-31.3%	2.7d	✓	-
8	MU	69	63	+56.33%	$35,634	$55,706	81	49%	-	+$20,073	-27.8%	3.5d	✓	-
9	SLV	64	0🧊	+49.05%	$19,500	$29,065	55	49%	-	+$9,565	-21.6%	7.3d	✓	-
10	CVX	43	0🧊	+47.28%	$11,466	$16,887	29	55%	-	+$5,421	-13.5%	13.2d	✓	-
11	CSCO	68	—	+45.86%	$19,050	$27,786	25	52%	-	+$8,736	-9.1%	15.2d	✓	-
12	GOOGL	59	29🧊	+41.08%	$19,155	$27,024	32	53%	-	+$7,869	-25.2%	7.9d	✓	-
13	ARKK	27	—	+39.66%	$10,438	$14,577	37	49%	-	+$4,140	-26.4%	5.4d	✓	-
14	XLK	35	—	+35.00%	$12,421	$16,768	24	54%	-	+$4,347	-25.5%	11.5d	✓	-
15	GILD	36	34	+33.67%	$12,734	$17,022	29	52%	-	+$4,288	-20.9%	10.3d	✓	-
16	USO	33	45	+33.25%	$11,783	$15,701	58	52%	-	+$3,918	-18.0%	8.8d	✓	-
17	COP	24	1🧊	+31.73%	$9,640	$12,699	37	49%	-	+$3,059	-20.6%	9.4d	✓	-
18	AAPL	40	—	+30.95%	$14,378	$18,829	21	57%	-	+$4,450	-21.5%	10.1d	✓	-
19	PLTR	69	32🧊	+28.35%	$45,265	$58,097	58	45%	-	+$12,832	-28.0%	2.8d	✓	-
20	GME	25	59🔥	+25.60%	$12,499	$15,699	34	44%	-	+$3,200	-32.0%	2.9d	✓	-
21	SLB	29	5🧊	+25.43%	$11,580	$14,525	40	45%	-	+$2,945	-22.2%	8.1d	✓	-
22	META	37	65🔥	+24.87%	$15,815	$19,748	38	45%	-	+$3,933	-26.1%	6.9d	✓	-
23	JNJ	41	0🧊	+24.65%	$13,448	$16,763	21	52%	-	+$3,315	-13.8%	16.3d	✓	-
24	XLE	18	—	+23.93%	$9,224	$11,432	24	50%	-	+$2,207	-24.7%	12.5d	✓	-
25	SCHW	52	0🧊	+20.96%	$14,789	$17,889	20	55%	-	+$3,100	-10.8%	11.7d	✓	-
26	XOM	26	—	+20.61%	$10,712	$12,919	29	48%	-	+$2,208	-18.5%	11.9d	✓	-
27	AMGN	16	0	+19.96%	$9,404	$11,281	21	52%	-	+$1,877	-28.3%	11.3d	✓	-
28	QQQ	31	—	+18.31%	$12,975	$15,351	16	50%	-	+$2,376	-29.6%	15.7d	✓	-
29	BMY	14	—	+16.99%	$8,915	$10,429	27	44%	-	+$1,515	-28.4%	7.9d	✓	-
30	SPXU	4	0	+15.62%	$8,380	$9,689	37	46%	-	+$1,309	-30.0%	5.6d	✓	-
31	GLD	62	—	+14.73%	$20,585	$23,617	21	52%	-	+$3,032	-6.1%	15.7d	✓	-
32	VZ	25	0🧊	+14.71%	$11,051	$12,677	23	43%	-	+$1,626	-14.2%	14.1d	✓	-
33	ABBV	32	—	+13.54%	$12,823	$14,559	30	47%	-	+$1,736	-17.7%	11.9d	✓	-
34	AMC	4	5	+13.43%	$4,331	$4,912	75	43%	-	+$582	-59.9%	2.4d	✓	-
35	VTI	40	—	+12.69%	$13,744	$15,488	11	55%	-	+$1,744	-16.1%	20.8d	✓	-
36	NVDA	33	18	+12.32%	$16,593	$18,637	40	43%	-	+$2,044	-43.7%	3.8d	✓	-
37	MSFT	38	—	+12.17%	$16,465	$18,469	31	39%	-	+$2,004	-21.2%	13.3d	✓	-
38	MRK	4	—	+11.16%	$7,545	$8,387	23	43%	-	+$842	-45.0%	9.8d	✓	-
39	BIIB	5	—	+10.92%	$6,396	$7,094	26	46%	-	+$698	-46.7%	7.5d	✓	-
40	SPY	38	—	+8.87%	$13,810	$15,035	11	55%	-	+$1,225	-12.7%	18.7d	✓	-
41	TMO	15	—	+8.82%	$10,173	$11,071	24	46%	-	+$897	-28.6%	11.0d	✓	-
42	VOO	35	—	+8.53%	$13,505	$14,657	11	55%	-	+$1,152	-15.4%	18.9d	✓	-
43	BAC	28	1🧊	+8.10%	$13,185	$14,253	17	47%	-	+$1,068	-21.4%	9.5d	✓	-
44	PFE	5	—	+7.84%	$8,596	$9,270	16	44%	-	+$674	-23.5%	10.8d	✓	-
45	UNH	5	1	+6.87%	$5,707	$6,099	29	45%	-	+$392	-54.0%	7.3d	✓	-
46	WFC	26	0🧊	+6.74%	$12,628	$13,479	22	50%	-	+$851	-25.5%	8.9d	✓	-
47	KO	31	—	+6.70%	$13,051	$13,926	17	47%	-	+$874	-13.1%	18.7d	✓	-
48	BRK-B	27	—	+6.53%	$12,509	$13,326	14	50%	-	+$817	-15.7%	16.3d	✓	-
49	V	27	—	+5.92%	$12,885	$13,648	16	38%	-	+$763	-14.4%	14.2d	✓	-
50	JPM	44	0🧊	+5.68%	$18,799	$19,867	19	37%	-	+$1,068	-20.8%	10.9d	✓	-
51	DIA	25	—	+5.42%	$11,531	$12,156	11	64%	-	+$625	-20.7%	20.9d	✓	-
52	C	33	0🧊	+5.02%	$16,200	$17,013	31	39%	-	+$813	-29.6%	8.3d	✓	-
53	BLK	31	0🧊	+4.82%	$13,624	$14,280	27	44%	-	+$657	-17.2%	12.3d	✓	-
54	TSLA	28	—	+3.53%	$14,978	$15,507	43	42%	-	+$529	-34.1%	2.9d	✓	-
55	XLF	40	—	+2.10%	$14,418	$14,721	14	50%	-	+$303	-11.5%	17.6d	✓	-
56	IWM	27	—	+2.08%	$13,254	$13,530	17	41%	-	+$276	-23.6%	13.7d	✓	-
57	PANW	30	6🧊	+1.97%	$15,124	$15,422	49	43%	-	+$298	-29.0%	7.1d	✓	-
58	VRTX	22	—	+0.21%	$12,873	$12,900	25	36%	-	+$27	-25.6%	10.7d	✓	-
59	MS	20	—	-0.26%	$12,039	$12,007	29	41%	-	-$31	-29.2%	9.0d	✓	-
60	COST	26	—	-3.13%	$14,299	$13,852	21	38%	-	-$448	-19.7%	13.0d	✓	-
61	VXX	18	2	-3.30%	$12,604	$12,188	53	38%	-	-$416	-32.2%	2.9d	✓	-
62	PM	27	17	-3.75%	$14,481	$13,938	23	39%	-	-$543	-21.9%	12.3d	✓	-
63	AMZN	31	—	-4.35%	$15,882	$15,191	37	38%	-	-$691	-18.5%	8.3d	✓	-
64	CMCSA	5	1	-5.07%	$7,060	$6,702	31	35%	-	-$358	-36.1%	11.9d	✓	-
65	MA	31	—	-5.45%	$14,710	$13,908	20	35%	-	-$802	-11.3%	13.9d	✓	-
66	RIOT	5	37🔥	-6.13%	$6,359	$5,970	88	39%	-	-$390	-51.3%	1.3d	✓	-
67	WMT	37	—	-6.48%	$18,112	$16,939	23	39%	-	-$1,174	-17.6%	14.4d	✓	-
68	PEP	4	0	-7.15%	$8,747	$8,122	19	37%	-	-$625	-23.1%	16.8d	✓	-
69	PYPL	15	2	-7.26%	$11,556	$10,717	35	43%	-	-$839	-35.9%	7.8d	✓	-
70	PG	4	—	-8.03%	$9,175	$8,438	15	33%	-	-$737	-24.4%	16.2d	✓	-
71	DIS	13	1	-8.43%	$11,745	$10,755	24	38%	-	-$990	-24.9%	11.6d	✓	-
72	MCD	7	0	-9.73%	$10,769	$9,721	17	35%	-	-$1,048	-12.9%	16.0d	✓	-
73	MDT	21	—	-10.36%	$13,175	$11,810	20	35%	-	-$1,365	-12.1%	13.7d	✓	-
74	GS	44	0🧊	-10.93%	$20,642	$18,386	30	33%	-	-$2,256	-15.7%	9.6d	✓	-
75	LLY	20	0	-10.97%	$13,835	$12,318	35	34%	-	-$1,518	-36.7%	6.7d	✓	-
76	SNOW	24	2🧊	-12.71%	$17,401	$15,189	58	33%	-	-$2,212	-43.4%	4.9d	✓	-
77	SQQQ	3	1	-12.93%	$5,320	$4,632	64	39%	-	-$688	-66.3%	2.8d	✓	-
78	ADBE	4	2	-13.24%	$7,735	$6,711	50	38%	-	-$1,024	-42.0%	8.2d	✓	-
79	DKNG	4	21	-14.74%	$7,786	$6,638	64	38%	-	-$1,148	-50.2%	4.1d	✓	-
80	TLT	4	—	-15.06%	$7,615	$6,468	11	27%	-	-$1,147	-27.7%	20.2d	✓	-
81	CRM	5	3	-15.78%	$9,256	$7,795	47	38%	-	-$1,461	-48.1%	7.3d	✓	-
82	AXP	23	1🧊	-15.80%	$15,243	$12,834	20	30%	-	-$2,408	-27.6%	10.6d	✓	-
83	NIO	4	0	-16.39%	$5,594	$4,677	54	35%	-	-$917	-51.1%	2.6d	✓	-
84	NFLX	38	0🧊	-16.46%	$24,506	$20,472	30	40%	-	-$4,034	-32.4%	9.5d	✓	-
85	IBM	29	—	-17.12%	$16,237	$13,457	39	41%	-	-$2,780	-17.7%	10.0d	✓	-
86	UVXY	4	2	-17.22%	$10,354	$8,571	72	35%	-	-$1,783	-50.0%	1.6d	✓	-
87	REGN	5	1	-18.56%	$8,276	$6,740	29	38%	-	-$1,536	-50.1%	7.6d	✓	-
88	RBLX	22	64🔥	-19.28%	$15,284	$12,337	67	40%	-	-$2,947	-46.8%	3.9d	✓	-
89	COIN	5	36🔥	-21.48%	$9,031	$7,091	75	36%	-	-$1,940	-53.5%	1.8d	✓	-
90	HD	5	0	-23.15%	$10,388	$7,983	27	30%	-	-$2,405	-19.9%	12.1d	✓	-
91	AVGO	19	1	-23.70%	$15,427	$11,771	48	35%	-	-$3,656	-27.0%	3.7d	✓	-
92	ACN	4	4	-27.34%	$6,204	$4,508	45	33%	-	-$1,696	-45.0%	9.3d	✓	-
93	ISRG	4	19	-30.43%	$13,623	$9,477	30	27%	-	-$4,145	-35.0%	8.4d	✓	-
94	RIVN	4	6	-31.79%	$6,309	$4,303	69	35%	-	-$2,006	-51.0%	2.2d	✓	-
95	SOFI	24	7	-32.66%	$19,930	$13,421	59	34%	-	-$6,509	-35.6%	2.7d	✓	-
96	TQQQ	5	14	-37.42%	$10,533	$6,592	65	35%	-	-$3,941	-40.9%	3.1d	✓	-
97	HOOD	5	17	-39.93%	$13,646	$8,197	69	33%	-	-$5,449	-45.6%	2.2d	✓	-
98	ORCL	5	29🔥	-41.68%	$15,666	$9,136	68	32%	-	-$6,529	-51.2%	5.2d	✓	-
99	SMCI	4	20	-44.36%	$2,074	$1,154	75	29%	-	-$920	-88.9%	1.9d	✓	-
100	MARA	4	5	-48.91%	$6,092	$3,112	91	32%	-	-$2,979	-58.2%	1.3d	✓	-
101	LCID	4	9	-52.83%	$17,224	$8,125	82	30%	-	-$9,100	-38.4%	1.9d	✓	-
102	CRWD	8	39🔥	-71.53%	$25,725	$7,324	55	44%	-	-$18,401	-24.8%	4.4d	✓	-

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.

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